The Specter of Violence Hangs over the 2024 Election

Kathleen Belew is worried; that worries me and should worry you.

Belew, a preeminent expert on white nationalists and violence, says this is a "very tense moment." Donald Trump has warned of trouble if any court cases go against him and a "bloodbath for the country" if he is denied the election in November.

The lead, or first paragraph of this column is almost verbatim what I wrote less than ten days after the 2020 election when Belew presciently predicted Trump's false claim that the election was stolen from him would incite fringe figures. It did, of course, on January 6 when a Trump-inspired mob violently attacked the U.S. Capitol. White power nationalists like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers were central figures.

If Biden wins, Belew says, "the white power movement, when it loses, usually turns to violence" -- January 6, the Oklahoma City bombing, among others. The white nationalists have embraced Trump; some think he's one of them, for others he's a convenient vehicle.

Belew, a history professor at Northwestern, has spent years writing books and diligently researching the movement and its inter- connectedness, she carefully tracks their messaging and all available data and information.

If Trump wins, she believes, the radical racists will be "legitimized," serving as the "the shock troops of the second term."

The 2024 national campaign will be vicious, the nastiest, most negative in modern history; there is cause to be tense, worried.

Trump has given the haters, who carefully watch what he says and does, reason to be ready.  

If the courts rule against him -- presumably that includes his current criminal trial in Manhattan and whether the Supreme Court grants him immunity from most prosecutions -- he warns there will be "big, big trouble" and "bedlam.” On another occasion he warned of possible "death and destruction" if he's wronged.

In response President Biden has declared "political violence is never acceptable in the United States."  A safe bet: you'll never hear those words from Trump.

Violence is deeply ingrained in these extremist groups: the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, neo-Nazis, remnants of the Ku Klux Klan. They have been implicated in a number of attacks on power plants and threats to communities of color and transgenders.

But it's politics that really riles them. The Justice Department says it's aggressively preparing for political-related violence against election workers as well as in response to any result they don't like. Officials note the extremists are more sophisticated with the use of newer technologies, than four years ago. 

I expect law enforcement will be much more prepared and committed than predecessors were. The Trump Administration's Defense Department, on January 6, failed miserably to respond quickly to the assault.

However, the Pentagon, under Biden, has done a lousy job of identifying and weeding out white power nationalists in its ranks. "There is a massive extremist problem in the Armed Services," notes Belew, "and they aren't doing much about it." 

Most ominous is the aftermath of the January 6 violence.

Americans saw, in real time, the mob attacks on the Capitol police, resulting in ten deaths, mainly Capitol Police and trump supporters. and considerable damage.   The January 6 committee held compelling hearings demonstrating President Trump's culpability and the dangers these extremists pose. Over a year ago when Republicans took control of the House they vowed to expose the "real story" of what occurred that infamous day and point out the Democrats' lies.

It was all bluster; they produced nothing.

Well over 1,000 Capitol assaulters were charged and about 500 convicted and incarcerated. There were stiff sentences to the worst offenders. The Proud Boys' Enrique Tarrio was sentenced to 22 years in prison, the Oath Keepers' Stewart Rhodes got 18 years.

All these, it was thought, would be powerful deterrents.

They haven't been.

A bunch of MAGA Republicans visited the January 6 perpetrators at the D.C. jail, celebrating them as "political prisoners;" Trump rallies sometimes feature a ballad written by the convicts.

Astonishingly, Trump has vowed, if elected, one of his first moves will be to pardon the January 6 insurrectionists.

So much for deterrence.

Says Belew: "It's as if it never happened,"