The Democrats 2024 MVP: Sam Alito
Pro-choice candidates on big winning streak
The Democrats' biggest benefactor in this year's elections may be Sam Alito, who spearheaded the Supreme Court's rejection of abortion rights protections.
Ever since that 2022 decision, Democrats and pro-choice forces have capitalized with victories across the country. Republicans have argued this momentum had run its course and would be overshadowed by other issues in the Presidential election year.
That's wishful thinking. The resonance was brought home again this week when the stage was set for Florida voters this November to choose between an almost total ban versus the protections generally available before the Court nixed them in 2022. Even in red Florida, this is unnerving some Republicans.
One is Donald J. Trump. The media must not let him equivocate or play rhetorical games.
A women's right to choose will be on the ballot in Florida and more than a half dozen other states, including some key battlegrounds. In dozens of contests in the past two years the issue has brought out more independent women, young voters and people of color to the polls.
These voters, who have shown minimal enthusiasm for this election, are what President Biden and Democratic Senate and House candidates in close contests need to turn out.
"It is impossible to exaggerate how front and center abortion is in this election," says Democratic pollster Jim Gerstein.
He polled in the special New York congressional contest this year where Democrat Tom Suozzi won decisively in what was supposed to be a tight race. Suozzi effectively countered GOP attacks on immigration while Gerstein notes, "The central critique against the Republican opponent was a woman's right to choose."
Likewise, last fall Virginia Republicans thought they could keep control of one house in the state legislature and win back the other, fueling Gov. Glenn Youngkin's political ambitions. Instead Democrats won the majority in both houses.
"Choice, women's reproductive rights was pivotal," says Susan Swecker, the state's Democratic party chair. "That gave us the majorities."
Just last week in Alabama, of all places, a Democrat won a special election for a state legislative seat focusing her campaign on access to abortion and in vitro fertilization. She won overwhelmingly in a district Donald Trump carried in 2020.
When those generally unenthusiastic voters, independent women, young voters and people of color turn out, most vote for Democrats.
That will be critical in several of these states where abortion is on the ballot in November: both the Presidential and Senate races in Arizona and Nevada. Abortion also is on the ballot in Montana where the Democratic incumbent Senator faces a tough challenge.
Florida offers the most interesting choice whether to retain the current abortion ban after six weeks, when some women don't even know they're pregnant, or approve the measure (it requires 60%) that would basically return the Roe protections. It's probably too much of a reach to make the state competitive in the Presidential or U.S. Senate race though it could affect a couple House races and put some politicians on the spot. If Trump says he won't vote for the ballot provision he's ok then, for now, with a six week ban? Push him, reporters, push him.
The issue also is on the ballot in New York state which has a very liberal law. Because of that in 2022 New York voters seem to believe the Court rollback didn't affect them. This time, with the initiative and threats of nationally imposed crackdown, may be different. There are as many as five Empire State House seats up for grabs, contests that may determine control of the House next year.
You can bet in each of those districts and in other competitive seats Democrats will cite -- early and often -- House GOP Speaker Mike Johnson's call for a total ban on abortion, which he calls an "American holocaust," and to consider reimposing restrictions on the use of contraceptives. Republicans almost certainly will dismiss that threat as unrealistic as are any GOP efforts to ban in vitro fertilization or the abortion pill.
More voters, however, are likely to agree with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer that you "cannot trust where Republicans are on any of these reproductive rights issues."