SHORT TERM LOOKS GOOD FOR DEMOCRATS, LONGER TERM ...
GETTING RIGHT ON IMMIGRATION AND CULTURE
There is no more insightful political reporter/analyst than Tom Edsall. His two recent New York Times essays raise sobering thoughts for upbeat Democrats.
In the short term, he writes, the party’s prospects are “great,” winning this year’s midterms and probably the presidency in 2028. The longer term, however, looks “dismal,” he contends due to the Democrats’ continuing toxic branding and population patterns.
The near collapse of the Trump presidency is a gift. For this year it’s enough opposing Trump and recycling popular positions on restoring cuts in Medicaid and the Affordable Health Care Act, raising the minimum wage, making the tax code more equitable and holding the Trump administration accountable for its corruption. The agenda for 2028 largely will be fashioned by the presidential candidates.
Trump is likely to grow even more unpopular; he increasingly appears unhinged. Democrats could screw it up in 2028 if they repeat the crazy stuff that dominated the 2019 presidential debates which led to the party ultimately turning to the old war horse, Joe Biden. But a decent candidate likely would be in good shape.
Then it gets tough, according to the scenario laid out by Edsall, a relentless reporter as well as insightful analyst. If the Democrats take the White House and historical patterns hold, they’re likely to suffer setbacks in the next midterms which set the table for critical redistricting.
As of now, he speculates, red states will gain a net of a half dozen to a dozen congressional districts and electoral votes. Florida and Texas each could pick up as many as four.
What makes it harder to overcome these forces, Edsall writes, is the brand remains historically low. He doubts the party has dealt sufficiently with correctives. Benefitting from Trump’s travails is different from learning about what caused the problems.
I disagree slightly here with Tom. The factors causing the Democrats’ problem: Joe Biden and his tragic decision not to step down sooner; immigration where they went soft, and a few cultural issues tied to the perception Democrats were elitists who looked down on working class folks.
The Biden problem will be overtaken by the next crop of presidential candidates. On immigration, helped by Trump’s brutal overreach and a sense by many Democrats they need to return to the basic Obama immigration policy: tough border controls, deporting migrants with criminal records and creating a rigorous pathway to citizenship.
That’s a position that will fly in most districts.
The cultural question is more difficult. The right wing especially focuses on punishing transgender Americans on everything from bathroom use to birth males playing in women’s sports to medical procedures.
It is pure demagoguery. Only about 1% of Americans identify as transgender, only a handful play in women’s sports and there are very few reports of bathroom problems. This should be left to schools and colleges and chiefly to parents.
The political role should be to protect against discrimination against transgender people.
Unfortunately that’s not how it’s playing out politically. Thus, Mara Keisling, a transgender leader and activist, says advocates should focus on protecting rights and education, and not join any fights over sports teams, use of bathrooms and hormone treatments.
Prominent politicians and liberals -- ranging from California Gov. Gavin Newsom to Iowa’s young gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand and tennis great Martina Navratilova -- all say pointedly men should not play in women’s sports.
This is only one indication that despite the constant hand-wringing and warning the party is not rushing to the left.
A big part of that contention was the 2025 New York City election of socialist Zohran Mamdani.
More important were the landslide gubernatorial victories of mainstream Democrats, New Jersey’s Mikie Sherrill, who blew by two more liberal candidates in the primary, and Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger, who cleared the field. Last month state legislator James Talarico defeated a left wing opponent in the Texas Senate primary.
The left wing’s main hope, public health official Abdul El-Sayed is running third in the Michigan U.S. Senate Democratic primary polls. Most of the House challengers highlighted by the party are veterans, have business experience or stress their faith.
Yet, the Democrats political standing is as bad as ever, seen as elitists who look down on average folks. It’s why a few Senate candidates are running as Independents to avoid the party’s brand. There are reports of voters still remembering Hillary Clinton’s 2016 criticism that half of Trump’s voters belong in a “basket of deplorables.”
Politicians like Kentucky’s remarkably successful Governor, Andy Beshear, a potential 2028 candidate, say that Democrats should talk more like average people, and not insult voters or give up on rural areas, red states.
That’s a necessity to avoid Tom Edsall’s concerns about a “dismal” long term fate for Democrats. The disastrous Trump presidency might carry them in the next two elections.
Then they are on their own.