SEATS DEMOCRATS COULD WIN IN A WAVE

A MONTANA INDEPENDENT WITH A GOLDEN RESUME

It’s baked in: Democrats will win control of the House in the midterms, picking up at least a dozen seats, and probably gain a couple Senate seats.

That’s if it’s a normal midterm, and Democrats stop Trump from sabotaging the election. Gerrymandering has made any huge gains in the House almost impossible. If Virginia passes a closely contested Democratic-led redistricting referendum April 21, the unprecedented gerrymandering campaign initiated this year by Trump is likely to be a wash.

Most of the competitive Senate races are in red states, limiting the gains possible by the opposition party.

Democrats have advantages. In Pennsylvania and Iowa with the tickets headed by popular gubernatorial candidates -- incumbent Josh Shapiro in the keystone state and state auditor Rob Sand, a political superstar in waiting -- rather than the unpopular Kamala Harris last time, they are hoping to flip two or three House seats in both places. And there are a record three dozen House Republican retirees.

The biggest question is whether this is a normal midterm advantage for the out party or is one approaching a wave as a series of special elections over the past year suggest. Here are the sorts of heavily Republican seats that might prove susceptible to a wave.

Tennessee’s 5th congressional district. Created as a safe GOP seat, incumbent Andy Ogles and Donald Trump both won this middle Tennessee district by more than 17 points two years ago. Still if it’s anything resembling a wave, watch this one.

First, Ogles is a right wing radical even by Tennessee standards; he charges, “Muslims don’t belong in America,” and raised the possibility of deporting New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani to Uganda. His personal profile may be worse. He has repeatedly lied about his background and still is under federal criminal investigation for campaign finance violations.

In a special election in the Volunteer State last year, the Democrats nominated a left winger and lost. They’re not making that mistake here. The candidate is Chaz Molder, a popular mayor of Columbia, Tenn., a prodigious fundraiser and a Sunday school teacher.

Texas’ 15th congressional district. Trump and incumbent MAGA Rep. Monica De La Cruz won by almost 15 points in 2024 and the district was redrawn to become even more Republican.

But this is a Hispanic majority district and Trump and his party’s standing with these voters has plummeted. They dislike his economic and health care policies and are turned off by the brutality of his immigration moves. A Fox News poll last week showed only 28% of Hispanics support Trump.

The Democratic candidate is Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy award winning Tejano singer, popular with Mexican Americans. More socially conservative, in line with the district, he defeated a more liberal candidate in this month’s primary.

In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats which means they must win in red states.

Montana: Ok this wasn’t on any list a few months ago. Then two things happened. Incumbent Republican Steve Daines pulled out of the race, in a sleazy way, announcing at the last minute so only his preferred replacement was ready to meet the deadline for filing to run. Meanwhile the University of Montana President, Seth Bodnar, announced he was running for the seat as an Independent.

Former Montana Senator Jon Tester says Bodnar has the best resume he has ever seen in politics: Graduated first in his class from West Point, Rhodes scholar, did multiple tours in Iraq with the 101st Airborne, a Green Beret commander, senior executive at General Electric before taking the helm at the University. His wife is a pediatrician and fifth generation Montanan.

There still are a couple Democrats running in the June primary but with the party’s toxic brand, only the moderate Bodnar has a chance to beat the Republican. “If he can get his message out,” says Tester, “he’s going to get votes of Independents, a lot of Democrats and some Republicans.”

Alaska: Democrats worked overtime to persuade their one candidate who could win, former Congresswoman Mary Peltola. She won the state’s at-large House seat in 2022, defeating Sarah Palin, then narrowly lost two years ago as Trump was winning the state decisively.

Polls today give the Democrat a slight edge. The incumbent Dan Sullivan, a two term Republican, is well credentialed and though he almost always votes with Trump isn’t really a MAGA guy. He just lacks any real identity.

To win big in the House and take control of the Senate, Democrats have to retain their most vulnerable seats.

Marcy Kaptur should be toast in Ohio’s 9th congressional district. She’ll be 80, has been in Congress for 44 years, the longest serving woman ever, when age and political longevity are liabilities. This year the state GOP made the Republican leaning district even harder for her. She won by less than a point last time in the Toledo-centered district Trump carried three times.

Few members work their districts harder. She has long been a champion of working class issues, favors economics; she favors selective tariffs but criticizes Trump for his on-again-off again chaotic tariff policy.

The Republicans in the May 5 primary include Derek Merrin, who lost last time, state majority leader Josh Williams, a black Republican, and Madison Sheahan, a Kristi Noem protege in South Dakota and ICE deputy director. All are running as champions of Trump; it’s worth noting in the last three presidential elections, Kaptur ran an average of almost ten points ahead of Trump in the district.

Michigan is one of three Democrat-held Senate seats the party must keep to get control. Republicans have a strong candidate, Mike Rogers, a former congressman who barely lost two years ago to Elissa Slotkin, an exceptionally good Democratic candidate.

There’s no Slotkin among the Democrats’ three candidates. Bernie Sanders backed liberal activist Abdul El-Sayed is running. But the primary probably will come down to congresswoman Haley Stevens, the establishment choice backed by a number of colleagues and the increasingly conservative pro-Israeli AIPAC, versus Mallory McMorrow, a media savvy state Senator who has gotten support from some Senators, surprisingly Eizabeth Warren, and by J Street, the more liberal pro-Israeli group.

This primary could get ugly. The Democrats have to come out of the August 4 primary unified to hold the seat of retiring Sen. Gary Peters.