POLITICAL FOCUS SHOULD BE ON MIDTERMS

2028 PRESIDENTIAL RACE HASN'T FORMED YET

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Recent polls on the 2028 Presidential race find the same Democratic front runners: Kamala Harrris, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
I’ll give you those four and take the other possibilities and not even ask for points.
That reflects shortcomings of the Top Four, especially Harris, but more it reflects history and an understanding that politics is not a static business, the environment and conditions change.
Politicians and the press should focus predominately on this November’s critical elections, and not the next Presidential contest. (I’m violating this for the last time until after Nov. 3)
For 2028, where will the economy be ? What will be the outcome of the disastrous Iran war ? How about Ukraine ? How will the politics of A-I play out, will China have caught or surpassed the U.S. ? What will be Donald Trump’s political and cognitive state ? How about the outcome of this November’s elections which will help shape the Presidential contest ?
I learned this lesson in the first midterms I covered. It was 1974; when polls or pundits focused on the next Presidential race --President Nixon was in his second term and facing impeachment --a Georgia peanut farmer and Governor wasn’t on any radar screen. That was Jimmy Carter.
It’s also worth recalling some of the front-runners at this stage: Republicans Rudy Guiliani and Jeb Bush and Democrats Gary Hart and Mario Cuomo. None got to measure the drapes in the Oval office.
These early 2028 surveys primarily reflect name recognition. Some of those voters forget about Harris’ miserable 2019 presidential campaign or even in 2024 when she got the nomination after President Biden dropped out and ran a mediocre campaign. Supporters say she got break when the Democrats made South Carolina, with a large number of black voters, the initial primary in 2028.
South Carolina provided decisive in the nominations of Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. That was when it was fourth ---the clean up hitter -- sorting out earlier splits decisions.
The left-wing mainstream debate, intensifying this year, likely will be even more inflamed in a Presidential year. There will be divisive debates over Israel, a government run health care system, immigration and other issues.
The most compelling candidate on the left is AOC a talented politician. I’d be surprised if she could win in swing districts or competitive states.
In following a unpopular President, the premium is on finding someone totally different, a counter to the incumbent.
With Trump that’s a large menu. Most of the leading Democratic Governors should do pretty well on that score.
Finally -- after spending most of a column disowning my own dictum about deemphasizing the next Presidential race -- it always depends on how a top tier candidate adapts to the major leagues of politics. Barack Obama did; Jeb Bush didn’t.
One more violation: The media loves to speculate on a possible GOP competition between J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. That may hinge on Trump’s whim of the moment. OMG.
The November elections will play a significant role. If Republicans hold on to Congress it’ll be a huge reaffirmation of Trump, despite the polls. He will be the political king.
For dispirited Democrats it would give impetus to the left -- “we’ve tried it your way and failed.”
If instead Democrats win the House, and perhaps the Senate, how they perform will be important. A party riven by ideological battles and overreaching will make it harder to suggest it’s ready to govern.
A party reasonably united and holding Trump accountable, will set a favorable predicate for the Presidential election.
Predictably the hopefuls will go all out to help Democratic candidates this fall. It’ll be interesting to see which national figures are welcomed by Senate candidates James Talarico in Texas or Josh Turek in Iowa.
Nothing is better than delivering in your own state. If Pennyslvania’s Josh Shapiro wins a big gubernatorial reelection and his coattails carry three Democratic House challengers with him, politicians will take notice.
The next Presidential race will kick in full gear by year end. For the next thirteen weeks, however, all the focus should be on the midterms.
Two years from now we’ll collect on my earlier wager.