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The midterms are going to be a blue tide for Democrats -- it’s a done deal to win the House and there’s a serious shot for the Senate -- somewhere between a current and a wave.
The margins matter, the difference between a narrow 10 vote or 25 seat margin in the House, and between 49 or 52 Democratic Senators in 2027. Obviously they must win in some Republican leaning venues; pending primaries will help shape that.
With the threat of Trump’s lawlessness, in most every instance the premium should be on electability. The party’s left wing celebrated the Philadelphia congressional primary win of Chris Rabb in an overwhelmingly Democratic district.
This is the sort of seat the left can win. They rarely prevail in the more competitive seats that determine majorities.
Rather than focus on a largely irrelevant Democratic 2024 autopsy -- the main reasons they lost was Joe Biden didn’t get out a year earlier and Kamala Harris was a mediocre candidate -- Democrats should heed the counsel of Barney Frank, who passed away last week: don’t let the left wing drive policies that “go beyond what is politically acceptable to most voters.”
Here are some of the races with important primaries:
ARIZONA CD 1: The two leading candidates for an open seat are Amish Shah, a physician, and Marlene Galán-Woods, who was a longtime broadcaster and the widow of a Republican Attorney General. There are few policy differences between them in the July 21 primary.
Shah only lost to a Republican incumbent by four points last time so you’d think he’d be the preferred candidate. But the Democrats’ campaign committee, labor, Emily’s List and prominent Arizona politicians instead have rallied behind Galán-Woods.
There is an explanation: electability. She is Hispanic -- as is 16% of the district; she has strong favorability from her decades as a broadcaster, and with her family Republican ties, Democrats believe she has crossover appeal with non-MAGA Republicans.
“She is the only candidate that can flip this seat,” says Janet Napolitano, former Democratic Governor.
MICHIGAN SENATE: For the Democrats to capture the Senate, they probably have to hold their own seats. They are in trouble in Michigan.
The Republicans have a good candidate, former congressman Mike Rogers, who barely lost in 2024 to Elissa Slotkin, a first rate candidate, better than any her party is running this time on August 4.
The Democrats’ two mainstream progressive candidates, state legislator Mallory McMorrow, and congresswoman Haley Stevens are battling for many of the same voters.
That is providing an opening for Abdul El-Sayed, a physician with a left wing agenda: embracing a single payer health insurance system, abolishing ICE, and campaigning with an influencer who has made many inflammatory comments. Republicans are salivating over running against him.
There will be pressure on one of the other two to bow out before the August 4 primary. I think McMorrow would be the stronger candidate but Stevens is the choice of much of the establishment.
CALIFORNIA 22: In response to the Trump-ordered Texas gerrymandering, California’s new congressional map favors Democrats in places like this Republican-held Central Valley seat. The incumbent David Valadao is resourceful and shows the few streaks of independence that make him harder to beat.
However he may have made a big mistake in voting for the “Big Beautiful Bill” which includes huge cuts in Medicaid. This is the most Medicaid dependent district in the country.
Of the two Democratic contenders, reading clips and talking to a few people, Randy Villegas, a professor, appears more knowledgeable on issues. But he embraces a more left wing agenda including a single payer health care system. The political problems with that position would give Republicans a likely counter to Valadao’s support for the Medicaid cuts.
Jasmeet Bains, a member of the state Assembly and a physician, favors building on the Affordable Care Act and may be better positioned to capitalize on the explosive health care issue. The primary is next Tuesday.
MONTANA SENATE: In the last two Senate elections in this state, Democrats nominated heavyweights, three term incumbent Sen. Jon Tester and two term Governor Steve Bullock. Both lost decisively.
Even in a good year, a D next to a candidate’s name in Montana is toxic. That makes it impossible to take advantage of a flawed Republican candidate, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who got the nomination by duplicitous default; incumbent Sen. Steve Daines surprisingly dropped out minutes before the deadline sealing the nomination for his pal, Alme.
There is one candidate who would have a chance: Seth Bodnar, running as an independent; he was President of the University of Montana, a West Point graduate, Rhodes scholar, Green Beret commander and is married to a pediatrician, a fifth generation Montanan.
The key here is whether whoever wins the June 2 Democratic primary, with no chance in November, drops out instead of taking potential votes from Bodnar. That’s what happened in Nebraska this spring. All the Democratic aspirants say they won’t drop out; Republicans are expending resources to help the Democrat most likely not to drop out.
They don’t want to go mano a mano against Bodnar.
NEW YORK 10: Incumbent Dan Goldman faces a primary challenge from New York City controller Brad Lander. The June 23 primary also is a Democratic proxy war between Governor Kathy Hochul with Goldman and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani who encouraged the Lander challenge.
Lander charges Goldman is too cozy with Israel as he is supported by the increasingly conservative American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). He actually is very critical of Benjamin Netanyahu and of the Iranian War.
The two would vote the same way in Congress but Godman would be a much more valuable member: He is an experienced investigator and interrogator -- an alum of New York’s U.S. Attorney’s office, southern district, and a lead counsel for a Trump impeachment in the House.
With Trump still in the White House, Democrats’ legislative initiatives will be limited. The premium will be on investigations of which there are limitless opportunities. There are few members of the House who possess the experience, discipline and rigor to do this well.
Goldman is one of them.