Democrats are heading to decisive wins in the November midterm elections, taking the House and possibly the Senate.
That is unacceptable to President Trump, more so than the normal desire to retain control; he knows congressional investigations to hold him and his Administration accountable pose grave dangers. He will do most anything, no matter legalities, to stave off a damaging defeat.
That sets the stage for ferocious political and legal battles in the most critical midterms in more than half a century.
Trump and his team have already telegraphed their plans: suppress the Democrats’ vote, based on fictional claims of voting fraud with hordes of undocumented migrants flocking to the polls. There have been scores of studies suggesting almost non-existent voting fraud, less frequent than getting hit by lightning. And why would an undocumented immigrant risk detection by voting which would be committing a crime ?
The Trump team is trying to curb early voting, get ahold of voter files, require a passport or birth certificates to vote, threatening to send forces into heavily democratic voting venues, challenge ballots, even possibly impounding voting machines.
On our podcast James Carville and I hosted Michael Waldman, President of the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law School and a leading expert on voting rights. He is worried: “What’s different is the federal government itself and the President are trying to undermine our elections.”
Amid his concerns, he’s encouraged by the growing opposition, less worried that constant warnings about voter suppression might be a self-fulfilling prophecy. “People are so ..... that it’s having a mobilizing effect.”
Waldman believes major rallies like No Kings -- after two last year that attracted millions around the country, the next one is scheduled for March 28 -- are elevating the stakes, enlisting more participants. If Trump steps up voter suppression, he is even open to the notion of a nationwide strike, advanced by Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego.
The economy, specifically affordability, will be the driving issue in the elections, but Waldman encourages candidates to talk about the threats that voter suppression poses for democracy. “Some consultants say don’t talk about democracy, Biden did and he lost,” he notes. “Biden’s problem was the way he talked about it, like mainly just vote for him.”
The legal challenges will be profound, he acknowledges, variations in different states but a common thread. He says there is plenty of legal firepower ready to take on Trump’s actions. The Brennan Center will be involved. Among others, high powered Washington lawyer Abbe Lowell is helping, but don’t expect previous partners like major New York law firm, Paul Weiss, to be involved. That was one of the white shoe firms that capitulated to Trump.
Waldman says these massive legal efforts will need more resources. It’s also unclear if, like the successful Biden post-election legal team that defeated Trump in 60 cases, there will be a lead team.
Elections in America depend on local officials and volunteers and there are fears of intimidation. “There is reason for people to be worried,” Waldman says. He suggests they work in groups and seek the important protection of local law enforcement.
At the very top of Michael Waldman’s list: “Vote, vote early, vote by mail.”
In a legitimate election, Democrats are going to win big. In practically every 2025 election, from statewide contests in New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin to special congressional and state legislative contests in states as diverse as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Louisiana and Iowa, Democrats are winning, by double digits, ahead of previous elections.
Preference polls consistently show Democrats with a four or five point preference for Congress. Yet in these earlier contests, including two Governor’s races -- New Jersey was supposed to be a tossup, yet Mikie Sherrill won the Governor’s race by more than 14 points -- Democrats consistently outperformed the polls. In general, that’s a hallmark of a wave or semi-wave election.
This is the 14th midterm election I’ve covered. Based on those experiences, the 2025 contests and the data, look for Democrats to gain up to a couple dozen House seats. Conventionally, the opposition party focuses on incumbents who won by five percentage points or less. There are fifteen in this category, but another 13 the GOP won by less than 15 points. Many of those seats are in play this fall. (The Republicans essentially hold a 220-215 advantage in the House.)
The big gains Trump expected from Republican redistricting didn’t materialize. Depending on whether Democrats’ gerrymandering wins approval in Virginia, the overall partisan effect will be either a draw or a gain of only a couple seats.
In the Senate, Democrats need to pick up a net of at least four seats. That’s possible especially if the March 3rd Texas Senate primaries are won by right wing, ethically challenged Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic newcomer James Talarico.
The White House spin that an economic surge, spurred by tax cuts, will create a winning political environment, is just that, a spin. The only way Trump and Republicans can turn around the 2026 political outcome is to steal it.
As much as citizen involvement and crucial legal challenges matter, the best way to prevent this is a huge voter turnout.
If there is election interference by the Trump mob having armed security there to prevent it would be the smart thing to do. It would have to be deployed not just people in uniform standing around with automatic rifles. They will need to deploy snipers if his thugs start attacking voters or show up to disrupt the election.
Trump and his mob need to be warned that if they try to interfere they will be shot dead.
Al Hunt standing up bringing us the truth