House Republicans Can't Find a Pelosi

House Speaker Mike Johnson says he wants to keep this job in the next Congress. Mike, don't order new drapes; you're more likely an accidental short termer.

This has nothing to do with the futile efforts of the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene to unseat him. That's not a serious threat; she's not a serious person.

But Johnson, despite continuing good reviews, serves at the mercy of two politicians, Hakeem Jeffries and Donald Trump.  For different reasons both don't want him deep -sixed this year.

Also in the next six months there aren't the explosive issues that might imperil the Speaker.  The right wing will try to attach politically divisive riders on the Appropriations bill, which is a nonstarter on issues like abortion and guns, and renege on an earlier deal to try to cut more overall spending.  These are non-starters.

If Democrats win the House --at least a 50-50 bet today -- Jeffries will be Speaker, If Republicans are in the minority or even retain a slim majority, Trump, win or lose the Presidency, will be the major force in the party.  Privately, sources say, he doesn't have much regard for the deeply religious Johnson's piety.  He's more likely to prefer a House GOP leader more in his image; an attack dog, with flexible principles and totally loyal to him, like a Jim Jordan or Elise Stefanik.

Johnson, who became Speaker after McCarthy was dumped and the caucus couldn't settle on anyone else, won deserved praise for House passage of aid to Ukraine while a majority of Republicans voted against it. He put his job at some risk though Jeffries and the democrats weren't going to let the Republican crazies terminate he Speaker for doing the right thing. 

He delayed a vote for months at considerable cost to Ukraine trying to stave off Russia's invasion.  The Louisiana Republican since is going out of his way to reaffirm his hard core conservatism with  antics like going to Columbia University to protest the protests, and to negotiate with Congresswoman Greene.

Johnson has displayed little courage or independence from Trump.  

Most egregiously after the 2020 election he rounded up more than half of the GOP caucus to support a brief filed by the Texas Attorney General that would disallow the electoral votes of four states that Biden carried, warning that Trump will be "anxiously awaiting the final list to review." The unprecedented move for one state to disallow the votes of others was quickly rejected by the Supreme Court,

In the process, Johnson lied to Rep. Liz Cheney, then the third ranking House Republican, about what he was doing,

Although she's not going to knock off Johnson, the demands of a fringe figure like Greene command more support among House Republicans. They include a return to the "Hastert rule," where nothing can be brought to a vote that isn't supported by a majority of the majority party; that would have meant a vote would not have been permitted on the Ukraine assistance which passed 311-to 112, more than 70% in support. 

She and her cohorts also demand no more assistance to Ukraine. A recently resigned conservative House Republican, Ken Buck, says on this issue Greene gets her "talking points" from Moscow. They also want to defund the special counsel Jack Smith who has indicted Trump; Johnson seemed to reject that, then equivocated while slamming Smith.

Kevin McCarthy, shrewd and craven, made deals last year that make governing for any Speaker more difficult such as allowing only one member to bring a privileged motion to unseat the Speaker.

He went along with demands to pack the Rules committee with obstructionist members weakening the authority  of the Speaker , That committee, which  clears whether and in what form, legislation  goes to the House floor, has been a part of leadership since Speaker Sam Rayburn defeated the Southern segregationists in 1961.

If, as I suspect, Johnson is only a footnote he joins a long list. In a little more than a quarter century the only really politically talented GOP House Speaker was John Boehner, and the Freedom Caucus made his job so miserable her quit.

  Newt Gingrich who orchestrated the GOP's first House majority in 40 years then was an inept Speaker and was forced out. Dennis Hastert was a pedestrian place holder, later discovered he was a sexual pervert; he spent more than a year in jail,  Paul Ryan, a policy wonk who gave up his preferred job as Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, lacked the requisite political toughness as Speaker. (It didn't help that he had to work with President Trump) 

Another absolute requisite is truth; your word is your bond. Kevin McCarthy's word was transactional.

The one Democratic Speaker during this span was Nancy Pelosi, perhaps the best ever. She was a consummate politician, ruthlessly tough when necessary, comfortable in her own skin, imbued with fabulous instincts and trusted, even respected by many who didn't agree with her.

Looking over the landscape for the next Congress, neither Johnson nor the other GOP wanna-bes measure up to that standard. The one who has that potential is a Democrat, Jeffries.