Happier Days for Democrats in 2025

Gifts from Trump

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These are dark days for Democrats, still suffering from a lost presidential election and surrounded by Republican control in Washington.

Voters are cooling on President Trump but Democrats aren't the beneficiaries. In the April Pew Research poll, only 38% of Americans view Democrats favorably, five points worse than Republicans.
Congressional Democrats are divided over how tough party leaders should respond to Trump and what are the priorities. Many Democratic office holders remain bitter over former President Joe Biden for staying in the Presidential race until it became clear he was unfit to serve another four years. (Almost none of these Democrats spoke out before he finally bowed out last July.)
Yet it's usually darkest before dawn. Accordingly, I see blue skies ahead for Democrats over the next six months with a few caveats. Much if this is due to anticipated Republican problems; that's usually how a defeated party starts a comeback.

The Trump tariffs are only starting to hit American consumers. But the impact in the months ahead will be far more severe, The Yale Budget Lab has estimated the costs could be as high as almost $5,000 for an average consumer household and a loss of 770,000 jobs.
Even, if under pressure, Trump retreats some damage already is in the pipeline.
Next month Trump and congressional Republicans will try to pass the "big beautiful" reconciliation package that is expected to extend tax cuts, including for the wealthy, and some new Trump proposed tax breaks, while cutting some popular programs, especially Medicaid.
The GOP will try to dress up these actions, with claims that he cuts primarily will focus on waste fraud and abuse, tougher work requirements form recipients, stretching out the changes, having states pick up a bigger share. The reality will be real reductions in programs like Medicaid, which has 72 million Ameri cans enrolled cutting taxes for wealthier Americans.

"If the Republicans plans materialize for deep cuts in Medicaid food stamps and other such programs, "says Robert Greenstein, a longtime progressive expert on these domestic programs. "The result will be the largest increase in poverty, destitution and the ranks of the uninsured our country has ever seen."

Politically, this should be a slam dunk for Democrats.
On June 14th Trump is planning huge military parade in Washington. The ostensible reasons are to celebrate the Army's 250th anniversary and Flag Day. The real reason is to celebrate Donald Trump's 79th birthday, sort of like North Korea's parades celebrating its "Dear Leader."
The same day grass roots progressives are planning anti-Trump rallies in communities all over the country with as many as a million protestors. If orderly, and if the organizers don't let Trump get away with painting the protest as anti-military, the split screen affect may not be good for the narcissistic President.
If there is a recession later this year, as many economists predict, it will hurt Trump more than it hurt most of his predecessors in that situation; he campaigned as the guy who would instantly revitalize the economy (it actually it was in good shape) and it would be self-inflicted with his tariffs.
To be sure, the economy -- if Trump retreats from the tariffs --might stay strong; and left wing Democrats could divert attention from the party's focus on the Trump economic record and corruption, It was the late John McCain who once quipped that sometimes it's darkest before it's totally black.
However, by the fall Democrats already are enthusiastic about the two state contests, New Jersey and Virginia.
Virgina particularly could provide a jolt of optimism if Democrats sweep the currently GOP held top three state offices, led by a strong gubernatorial candidate, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, and add to their margin in the state Assembly.
Democrats hope that may be a harbinger for the midterms the following year when they have to win the House. Of the 35 Republican-held seats the Democratic congressional campaign has targeted, Trump carried all but three, which seems daunting.
Several, however, were very close, Republican won three House races in Pennsylvania by 1.6 percentage points or less with a losing Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. Next. year with the popular Governor, Josh Shapiro, leading the ticket, those seats will be in play.