Donald Trump and the Republican party he controls suffered a blowout in elections around the country, underscoring his shaky political standing while the supposedly dead in the water Democrats showed vibrant life.
This is a boost for Democrats’ hopes in the critical midterm elections next year and could give some political pause to congressional Republicans who have taken marching orders from the White House all year.
Most significant were two Governor’s races won by Democratic congresswomen. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger reclaimed a seat that Republicans captured four years ago, leading an electoral sweep in the state. In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill kept the Governorship in Democratic hands; this will be the first time in more than sixty years that the state will be governed by the same party for more than two terms.
Both Democrats made countering Trump, particularly his failure on the cost of living -- affordability for health care, groceries, housing -- a centerpiece of their campaigns. The outcomes yesterday were very much in line with the President’s falling poll numbers.
In California, voters decisively approved a referendum, handing Democrats a must win to gerrymander congressional districts next year, gaining as many as five Republican-held seats. This will partially offset Republican redistricting in multiple states they control.
Right wingers privately were pleased that Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, was elected Mayor of New York City. Trump and Republicans will try to make the left wing Mandani the face of the Democratic party. Trump erroneously, though no doubt intentionally, refers to him as a Communist. This will be a staple of conservative media and even some mainstream journalists have spoken of the next New York mayor as defining the future of the party.
It makes for a good narrative to attract readers, viewers and clicks. It ignores history. New York has had high profile mayors, John Lindsay, Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg. None had much impact on national politics, all sought the Presidential nomination and were soundly rejected. The last New York City Mayor to win any higher office was John T. Hoffman; that was more than a century and a half ago, in 1869, when he was elected Governor.
Mamdani, who is a first class communicator, will have a difficult time enacting his most ambitious proposals.
“The face of the Democratic party are these two women who’ll be Governors,” counters Susan Swecker, the former chair of Virginia’s Democratic party and respected political figure.
Spanberger and Sherrill send a different message than the Mayor of New York City. Both are moderate progressives with national security credentials, Sherrill as a Navy helicopter pilot and Spanberger as a CIA agent.
These odd year elections often have served as a harbinger for the next midterms. Strong GOP showings in 2009 and 2021 were followed by Republican gains in congressional elections the following year. Conversely, after solid Democratic victories in New Jersey and Virginia in 2005 and 2017, Democrats scored major victories in the midterms.
Democratic strategists expressed confidence this helps the case in 2026 for three major reasons: the message -- affordability, health care, Republicans cutting Medicaid to help fund tax cuts for the rich-- resonate with voters around the country, make it easier to recruit candidates, and the money will start flowing in.
The New Jersey race was supposed to be tight; instead Sherrill won by double digits. She ran well ahead of Kamala Harris’ showing last year and of the incumbent Democratic Governor four years ago. The Republican candidate, Jack Ciatterelli, clung to Trump, a big miscalculation. While losing last year Trump did better than expected even winning Passaic County with a heavily Hispanic population. Sherrill carried Passaic.
The Democrats’ success in Virginia mirrored the Republicans’ big night four years earlier. Spanberger even pulled in Attorney General candidate Jay Jones who seemed a political goner after a text surfaced of him using vile language and violently threatening a colleague.
Democrats also added to their 51-49 margin in the state assembly. This facilitates the party’s plan to join the gerrymandering parade next year and add to the Democrats six to five margin in U.S. House seats.
Democrats scored victories in under the radar races. In Georgia, Democrats unseated two Republican public utility commissioners.
In Pennsylvania, voters decisively voted to retain three members of the state Supreme Court, keeping their 5 to 2 majority. This was the court that several years ago rejected a heavily Republican partisan gerrymandering.
Among the winners yesterday, along with the candidates, were Democratic Governors Gavin Newsom of California and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, both potential Democratic presidential candidates in 2028. Former President Barack Obama displayed his political magic embracing the California referendum and the two gubernatorial contests.
One loser was Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin who only four years ago was ousted as the possible future of the GOP. He leaves office with few substantive or political successes and little national standing. The biggest loser was Trump who is a stranger to accepting defeat. His predictable reaction will be; We wuz robbed.
Hallelujah! The Dems won and spoke the truth! It seems Trumpy is on his way out! Good! Good riddance! Goodbye! Farewell! Chow!
Let's go Epstein.