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Look for a blue tide on November 3 assuming Trump is unsuccessful in sabotaging the midterm elections.
A prediction: the Democrats will pick up a net of 22 House seats which would give them a 237 to 198 majority. They will gain five to seven Senate seats to also win control.
For the House, the Real Clear Politics average shows the Democrats with an 8.3% advantage in congressional preference.
In the 2018 midterms, in the first Trump term, the Democrats won the overall popular vote for the House by 8.4%, picking up 41 seats. With subsequent gerrymandering, gains of that magnitude would be very difficult, but still would result in major pickups.
Republicans argue -- hope -- that the polls are off, understating the GOP vote as they did when Trump was on the ballot. Yet in the midterms eight years ago, the actual Democratic vote exceeded the 7.3% average advantage in the final pre-election polls. Similarly the smaller Republican edge in 2022 was slightly better than the polls.
Usually in midterms the late deciding vote breaks for the opposition party.
The Republicans, especially the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, are pouring tons of money into the final weeks. That’s countered by especially impressive House and Senate challengers.
This is true across all regions. In two markedly different states politically, Pennsylvania and Iowa, Democrats could pick up a combined half dozen seats. Their candidates are competitive in deep red districts from South Carolina to Montana.
On the Senate side, a pickup of at least five seats would provide a cushion if Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman defects to the other side.
There is one sure Democratic pickup in North Carolina. In five other contests Democratic challengers are slightly ahead: Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska and Iowa.
Usually in these cases rather than splitting the difference, most go the same way. If so Democrats seem poised to win at least four, total net gain of five.
Democrats have to hold several of their seats. The main challenge is in Michigan where the left wing nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, is controversial. But the Republican candidate, former congressman Mike Rogers, has run a mediocre campaign, so Democrats are cautiously confident.
Moreover, there are a half dozen Republican-held seats, in places like Kansas and South Carolina, that weren’t on any radar screen until Trump’s precipitous decline in public support. It’s conceivable the Democrats win a couple of these longshots.
There are 36 gubernatorial elections on the Nov. 3 ballot. Republicans have a shot at winning control of a couple now held by Democrats. But Democrats expect to take over four or five GOP-held governorships, including major ones like Ohio.
If there is a blue tide Democrats could achieve a trifecta in Pennsylvania and Michigan, control of the executive and both houses of the legislature.
Predictably, the 2028 presidential aspirants want to show off coattails. In Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, headed for an easy re-election, is trying to use his coattails to carry in three or four Democratic House challengers.
Likewise, Georgia Sen. Jon Osoff, headed for a decisive re-election, is trying to help former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms who’s in a much tougher gubernatorial race. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, whose term expires next year, is trying to help a former aide, Zach Dembo, win a House seat in a heavily Republican district.
Illinois’ billionaire Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker already has given about $40 million to help Democrats in the midterms.
True, the polls in a number of the more competitive races are close. It may be a huge infusion of Republican and Musk money in the closing days that may make the difference in a few.
Still, start with a base of the Democrats picking up 22 House seats and five Senate seats, if you’re betting the over-under, take the over.
POSTSCRIPT: This is my last column for about a month, on a medical leave, will be back.