The midterm elections are a year away but the stakes are so high -- a Republican win would embolden President Trump even more, while a good night for Democrats would place a modest check and provide some vigorous oversight -- it’s already heating up.
Much of the political focus today is on the House as, under orders from Trump, Republicans, in states where they are in control, want to rig the outcome with an unprecedented gerrymandering of congressional districts. Democrats, with less leverage, are trying to respond.
It will be months before this shakes out with more retirements in the offing and candidates still weighing whether to jump in.
It’s easier, a year out, to take a look at the Senate, where Democrats face an uphill, though not impossible, task to gain a net of at least four, which means winning mostly in solidly Republican states.
The stage will be set in a series of primaries in both parties, shaped by ideology, the drawbacks from the Republicans’ right flank and the Democratic left and questions of age/experience versus fresh faces and inexperience.
All the factors are at play in Texas, which last elected a Democratic Senator thirty seven years ago. Democrats hope right wing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has faced multiple criminal probes, wins the GOP nomination. It’s a bitter three way race with polls showing Paxton in a tight race with conservative John Cornyn, the 73 year old incumbent. My hunch is Trump ultimately will embrace Cornyn.
The early favorite for Democrats was Colin Allred, a former congressman who lost a Senate race in 2024. But he has been eclipsed by James Talarico, a 36 year old state legislator and former seminarian who stresses his faith and progressive policies; he is a superb communicator. A wild card would be if Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, a left wing Democrat who Republicans gerrymandered out of her House seat, jumps in.
Democrats also are eying another deep red state, Iowa, where incumbent Joni Ernst is retiring. GOP congresswoman Ashley Hinson will be the GOP candidate. A number of present or former Democratic state legislators are running, The most compelling general election candidate would be Josh Turek, a former Paralympic gold medalist who campaigns vigorously in his wheelchair. He has to win the primary first.
Then there’s Maine where Democrats believe they may finally have a chance to defeat Sen. Susan Collins, whose popularity has plummeted. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer thought the perfect candidate was the state’s Governor, Janet Mills. She is 77 years old, but Collins is 72 and Maine’s other Senator, Angus King, is 81.
A bigger concern has been the political presence of Democrat Graham Platner, a Marine and oysterman whose left wing pitch has propelled him ahead of Mills. Now, however, stories about his troubled past are emerging, displaying a diversity of problems: he has insulted cops and gays, described himself once as a communist and wore a Nazi-inspired tattoo.
This has been a gift for Collins.
It’s also a reminder when hot new candidates emerge, look for oppo research. Virginia’s Democratic Attorney General candidate is Jay Jones, a state legislator. Only a few months ago Jones was seen as one of the party’s most promising young Black politicians, with already talk he could be the Governor in four years. Republicans, after the deadline for withdrawing, leaked obscenely vile, threatening emails he had sent to a Republican legislator. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t lose next Tuesday
In a few other states, primaries could pose problems when the candidate for the other side is unopposed. In Georgia, Democrat Jon Osoff is a top Republican target. However, the three potential GOP candidates, two congressmen and a football coach, aren’t lighting any fires as they vie for Trump’s endorsement.
In an open Michigan seat, Republicans have their candidate, former congressman Mike Rogers who only narrowly lost a Senate bid last year. The establishment Democratic candidate U.S. congresswoman Haley Stevens, who may not be a strong general election candidate. Neither would Abdul El-Sayed, a physician who was soundly beaten in an earlier gubernatorial primary. But he has strong appeal to the party’s left wing base.
The candidate with the most potential for next November is Mallory McMorrow, a state Senator whose denunciation of Republican bigotry went viral several years ago. She seems to be running as the candidate from MSNBC, the liberal cable network that has given her lots of exposure, and has yet to fashion a compelling message.
To take the majority Democrats need several other pickups. The most likely is North Carolina with Roy Cooper, the popular two term former Governor running for an open seat.
There are two other heavily Republican states where Democrats say their candidates have an even chance against Republican incumbents. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown, a three term Senator defeated last year, is waging a strong comeback for the other Senate seat.
Since 1981 Alaska has had only a single Democratic Senator, for only one term. Washington Democrats are encouraged that former congresswoman Mary Petlola will run and become the second.