DEMOCRATS' STRONGER RECRUITS MAY TOP GOP'S GERRYMANDERING GAINS

THE HELLCATS ARE BACK

Republicans are succeeding in the gerrymandering fight trying to stack the deck for the midterm elections, but Democrats are winning what may be a more important contest: candidate recruitment.

Driven by the dangers of an unchecked Trump and the lure of a good year, Democrats are attracting top level candidates: women with national security credentials, physicians to capitalize on the draconian cuts in Medicaid and challengers who came close last year in a less friendly environment.

On gerrymandering, Republicans, with Texas gains in the bag, seem optimistic about adding an additional half dozen seats with changes in Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Indiana. Democrats have no more than a 50-50 shot to offset some of that with big changes in California.

It's very unusual to make major redistricting changes in the middle of a once a decade census population report. This was ordered by Trump, fearful of losing his party's House majority next year. Republicans in these states follow the boss.

If the GOP gains a net of a dozen seats through gerrymandering, David Wasserman, the Cook Political Report's expert extraordinaire on House races, calculates the Democrats would have to win the overall popular vote by 4.5% to win a majority of seats.

That's a tall order in a polarized electorate. Yet Trump's unfavorability, an economy heading south and the impact of huge Medicaid cuts could produce a wave election similar to 2018. That midterm, in Trump's first Presidency, saw the Democrats pick up 40 seats while winning the popular vote by more than 8%.