DEMOCRATS DOING POORLY IN POLLS; WINNING ELECTIONS

Too much attention is paid to political polls, at this stage, by politicians and pundits alike. They are snapshots but are treated like the Mona Lisa.

So I'm about to write a column on polls. To repeat, these are just snapshots. There actually is a more instructive indicator which I'll cite later.

We're going through the most turbulent first five months of any Administration since 1933. It's not quite right to say Trump is doing exactly what he said would. Most voters didn't expect him to send the Marines in during a political protest; or try to take over Harvard or successfully shake down big New York law firms and major media companies; or that his primary farm club for appointments would be Fox News.
Yet, remarkably, polls show little change from the start of the Administration. Trump's approval has slipped a little but Democrats haven't gained.

Trump is winning the immigration fight, according to polls. It's not hard to see why the Administration eagerly seeks confrontations over immigration, and migrant deportations; there were reports of White House aides high-fiving over clashes in California between deportation protestors and the National Guard, which Trump, ignoring state and local officials, federalized.

These fights also divert attention from the "big beautiful bill" Trump is trying to rush through Congress. Polls show overwhelming opposition to cuts in Medicaid to help pay for tax cuts that primarily benefit the wealthy.
The views of the economy are more mixed. The public by a small but clear margin prefer Republicans to Democrats on the economy, However, Trump's on again, off again posture on massive higher tariffs are not popular.
Overall impressions of Trump/Republicans vs Democrats were in a CNN survey last month. On the issues dealing with climate change, race, abortion, LGBTQ, Education and the party of the Middle Class, Democrats hold the edge. But on issues that may be more topical today -- - immigration, budget and taxes, crime and strong leadership -- the Republicans, almost indistinguishable from Trump these days, have the advantage.
There were two findings of greater interest. Republicans are seen more as the party of change. But a plurality are closer to Democrats on protecting Democracy which they believe is threatened.

These snapshots obviously change when conditions change. What the economy looks like in six months may matter.

Now on that more instructive indicator: elections. Democrats, despite their generally lousy poll ratings, are doing quite well in the relatively small sample of elections this year. They won a hotly contested and hugely expensive Wisconsin State Supreme Court race earlier this spring. In Omaha Neb. a Democratic challenger easily defeated a Republican incumbent mayor. Also Democrats flipped two state Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania. In special congressional and state legislative elctions in deep red districts, Democrats, on average, are running by double digits, ahead of their performance in those places last year.

Finally, there are two statewide races this November in New Jersey and Virginia. Democrats are confident they have strong candidates, Mikie Sherrill in the Garden state and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, moderate members of Congress with a national security background. They are likely to be the next Governors.