DEMOCRATS COULD WIN GERRYMANDERING WARS, THANKS TO TRUMP

BIG VOTE IN VIRGINIA TOMORROW

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Virginians will vote Tuesday on whether to facilitate a new gerrymandering of congressional districts that is deeply partisan, a bad idea.

I’d vote for it in a minute if I lived in Virginia.

The only reasons to vote against it are to help Donald Trump or if you believe in unilateral disarmament.

This is all about Donald Trump. In a desperate attempt to avoid losing the House majority this year he set out to try to manipulate the result. It began when, following his orders, Texas enacted a gerrymandered redistricting for 2026 to give the GOP control of 30 of 38 House seats, a gain of five.

Trump pressured states where Republicans controlled the process to do likewise. He ignored the normal practice, in most instances, where redistricting occurs every ten years after the census report on population.

What he didn’t fully anticipate was Democrats would fight back just as ruthlessly. It started in California where, unlike Texas, a referendum authorizing a redistricting change was put on the ballot and passed by more than three million votes. The aim was to check Texas and add five additional Democrats seats to the already massive 43 to 9 advantage.

Republicans succeeded in picking up a likely seat in both North Carolina and Missouri.

Trump set his sights on Indiana where he met resistance from prominent Republicans like former Governor Mitch Daniels and associates of his first presidency’s Vice President, Mike Pence. Thus it failed in the Republican-led state legislature and Trump now is trying to defeat seven GOP state Senators who stood up to him.

Maryland Democrats also decided not to change.

Separately, there are a couple court-related cases that should enable Democrats to pick up three seats in Utah, Alabama and Louisiana. If the Supreme Court soon were to gut voting rights, Louisiana Republicans may be poised to reverse that.

Florida Republicans, despite some legal hurdles, probably will approve a redistricting that should give them a couple more seats. This is a virtual certainty if the Virginia Democrats’ referendum passes tomorrow.

The stakes in Virginia are considerable. The new U.S. House map, drawn by the Democratic state legislators, is intended to give the party a 10 to 1 advantage up from the current 6-5. Some Democrats worried that it was too much of a reach.

Republicans are fighting back. They even trotted out the failed former Governor Glenn Youngkin to make a pitch against stealing votes.

The thrust of the GOP campaign was captured in an inane Washington Post editorial that charged sponsors of the referendum are deceiving voters by depicting it as “restoring fairness” in the upcoming elections and returning to regular order after the next census.

This is a partisan explanation but it’s exactly what is intended. Voters aren’t deceived. That’s why Democrats overwhelmingly support the referendum and Republicans are overwhelmingly opposed.

It’s instructive to look at Virginia and neighboring state North Carolina where Republicans, with the benefit of gerrymandering, are expected to win 11 of 14 House seats.

Looking at the top recent statewide elections, Virginia has voted Democratic in every one of the last five presidential elections, in three of the past five gubernatorial contests, and all six Senate elections. With fair redistricting, it’s not hard to see Democrats holding seven of the eleven House seats.

Republicans have won four of the past five Presidential elections in North Carolina, five of the last six Senate contests, while Democrats have won four of the five gubernatorial races. So all things being equal, the GOP could hold eight of the fourteen seats in the Tar Heel state.

That would mean Democrats have 13 in the two states and Republicans 12. If Virginia approves the referendum, that’s the anticipated outcome.

In Virginia, like California, the issue is being resolved by voters. In North Carolina it was politicians cutting backroom deals.

Both these changes are unfortunate. Voters should pick their representatives rather than politicians choosing their constituents. Gerrymandering not only makes for a more partisan outcome but makes governing harder.

Overall, there’s a better than even chance that Donald Trump’s effort to fix this year’s House elections will backfire. Democrats will be the net winners in this year’s gerrymandering wars.

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