Skip to content
Using Gmail with screen readers
Inbox
-
Donald Trump correctly predicted his self-styled Big Beautiful Bill would be a winner in this year’s midterms elections.
It is ... for Democrats.
Most Democratic candidates in competitive races are emphasizing the bill’s huge cuts in Medicaid, the steep increase in Americans without health insurance while giving the wealthy big tax cuts. Republicans , often on the defensive, stress provisions like limiting tax on tips or overtime and claim the Medicaid cuts were about eliminating waste fraud and abuse.
A Washington Post survey found that Congressional Democrats talk about the law twice as often as Republicans according to an analysis of public statements and social media posts.
On a podcast I’ve interviewed a dozen Democratic challengers from New Jersey to Arizona. Every one has been eager to talk about the problems caused by the Big Beautiful Bill.The measure passed by a single vote so Republicans can’t easily finesse the bill. Some, like Wisconsin’s Derrick Van Orden, outrightly deny the BBB cut Medicaid spending. Iowa’s Zach Nunn, was so angered by a question from a Democratic tracker, he smashed the phone.
Others reframe the issue. California Rep. David Valadao’s Central Valley district has the highest number of Medicaid recipients of any GOP member so he changes the focus. “Obviously there was the health care component,” he acknowledged, “But obviously the tax component was the most important portion of the bill that we were mostly focused on.”
A Politico poll found most half respondents didn’t know much about the bill; more people said it hurt them than helped them.White House and congressional leaders are urging candidates to call it “The Working Families Tax Cuts,” not the Big Beautiful bill. But starting with Trump and now the media and Democrats it’s the BBB.
There was real GOP optimism when Trump signed the legislation July 4 a year ago. It would be a huge job creator, cut taxes. boost real wages, a bonanza for farmers, lower the debt and expand heath care.Even by Trumpian standards the claims were outsized He said the bill was “perhaps the most important and greatest of its kind in history.”
His Amen chorus was right behind him. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted an immediate boost in real wages as 2026 “can be a very good year.”
Real wages have been stagnant since the bill passed.
There were tax cuts that primarily benefitted the rich. Provisions ending the tax on tips and overtime helped some workers, not nearly as many as advertised.
Thirteen months after the bill passed it’s not a pretty picture economically though there are other factors not just BBB. Over four million American have lost health insurance, primarily because Trump let the Obamacare enhanced tax credit expire and five million more no longer have SNAP or nutritional assistance.
Farm income, adjusted for inflation is expected to fall 2.6% from a year ago with the separate Trump tariffs a factor. The deficit has grown and while predictions of a recession were wrong, job growth has been modest.About 400,000 jobs have been added over the past year. The final year of the Biden Presidency saw 2.2 million additional jobs.
On the stump, twelve weeks before the election, these figures and the BBB is front and center for most Democratic candidates.
Rural hospitals, affected by Medicaid cuts, are in danger of closing; a few already have. Zach Nunn’s Iowa challenger seizes on this; “My congressman said it was a myth that it (the BBB) was going to close rural hospitals,” says Sarah Trone Garriott. “It is already happening.”
In Scranton, Pa., Democrat Paige Cogentti charges Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan sold Medicaid-related stocks and then voted for bill that cuts Medicaid.
As the President’s popularity sinks, more challengers are linking their opponents to Trump and the BBB, Citing Rep. Jan Kiggans vote for the bill, challenger Elaine Luria claims Virginians are paying a price for the incumbent putting “loyalty to Trump over their own community.”Some Republicans, like New York’s Mike Lawler, are holding fast, championing the Big Beautiful Bill. He boasts about increasing the deduction for state and local taxes to $40,000 from $10,000, a real benefit to those generally making $200,000 to $500,000. He reminds constituents often of the tax exemption for some tips and overtime pay.
On defense, Lawler says the Medicaid cuts eliminated waste fraud and benefits for illegal immigrants. Actually undocumented migrants always have been ineligible for Medicaid.
Lawler faces one if the toughest Democratic challengers, decorated Army veteran, Cait Conley, who doesn’t let him off the hook. She notes before the 2017 Trump tax cut there was no cap on state and local tax deductions so just increasing it to $40,000 is inadequate.
On the health care policies she charges thousands of Hudson Valley residents have lost health care coverage because of Lawler’s vote.
She is brutally dismissive of Lawler’s claims about the bill: “The guy is a con artist.”