Biden Needs the Blue Wall to Stay Blue

National polls suggest a slight lead for Donald Trump in the Presidential race.  Ignore them.

If the race remains close, focus on the six or seven battleground states where Trump also has a better hand. Remember it's a multi-candidate election- not a two way contest- and will be decided by the Electoral College, not the popular vote.

The starting point, based on the 2020 election, is Biden with 303 electoral votes, or 33 more than necessary.

 
Four and a half months out,  Biden is struggling in the sunbelt states he carried: Georgia, Arizona and Nevada as well as in his closest defeat, North Carolina. If that doesn't change, he can't lose any other state he won before.

The key to a Biden victory, then, would be the Blue Wall: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, all of which, starting in 1992, went Democratic in every election until  2016 when they went Red- paving the way for the Trump upset.  They came back four years ago. We'll analyze them as of today.