There is another election this fall important for America’s policies and politics even if it pales next to the significance of the crucial congressional midterms.
On October 27, a week before the U.S. elections, Israel will decide whether to replace or retain Prime Minister Benjamin Netanhayu.
Though the ultimate survivor, serving over 18 years as Prime Minister, the expectation is he’ll lose. Despite successful strikes against Iran, wiping out much of their leadership, he remains deeply unpopular in Israel, blamed for the disastrous October 2023 Hamas surprise terrorist attack and an unwillingness to accept any accountability.
With the country’s crazy-quilt political system -- there are dozens of parties and any that gets 3.25% of the vote gets a seat in the Knesset -- it’ll be weeks after the election before the governing coalition is formed.
A clear Netanhayu defeat would be welcome news politically for many Democrats who have been caught in the crosshairs between anti-Israel activists and strong Jewish supporters. They might hail the possibility of a new start in American-Israel relations.
Yet whatever the immediate euphoria, the tension will endure as then the prospect of a Palestinian two state solution seems as distant as ever.
American views about Israel are at the lowest point since Harry Truman first recognized the Jewish state in 1948. There have been other points of difference, like the 1956 Suez crisis when President Eisenhower backed down the Israelis, but they were more specific and shorter.
Today Israel and its leader are no longer supported by most Americans. For the first time polls show the Palestinian cause is more popular.
To be sure, some of this is the always present anti-semitism. That is the case with some of the radical left wing politicians who have scored a handful of victories this year. Some of their supporters, influencers, are virulently anti-semitic.
The most visible candidate is Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive and a Muslim. Unlike some of the radicals he is working to mend relations with the state’s Jewish voters. Jews and Muslims both represent less than 2% of the electorate but matter in a close contest; the 2024 Michigan Senate race was decided by less than 20,000 votes.
Antisemitism may be more prevalent among Republicans though it receives less attention. There are antisemites in the second ranks of the Trump Administration; some young Republican confabs are full of anti-Israel rantings, and the third place finisher in the Florida gubernatorial primary last month was a white nationalist antisemite.
The schism is actually aggravated by the prime Israeli lobby in America. The American-Israel Political Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is seen these days primarily as a Netanhayu cheerleader.
The dramatic decline in public support has deeper causes; the Israeli Prime Minister and his government are at the top of the list. One survey even showed New York’s anti-Israel mayor, Zohran Mamdani, more popular among Jewish voters than Netanyahu.
More than a few Republicans, almost all privately, blame Netanhayu for conning Trump into the disastrous Iran War. Even Trump may not be all that displeased if the prime minister is a gone,
The majority of Democrats intensely dislike the Israeli Prime Minister, citing his brutality, 73,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, and arrogance, the foreign leader addressed Congress to oppose President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran.
Thus, replacing him is a necessary condition for a reset of American attitudes toward Israel. But it won’t be sufficient.
A new government headed by the current front runner, Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, could undo some of the ill will generated by Netanyahu.
It could crack down on the settlers who daily terrorize Palestinians on the West Bank. The current national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, is a settler himself and supports these criminal acts. The New York Times reported that a number of former Israeli Generals and intelligence officials accuse the settlers of engaging in ethnic cleansing that ultimately poses a grave threat to the Jewish state.
That and a more measured policy on Gaza would help with U.S. relations.
Conversely, if Netanhayu pulls an upset days before the American elections, relations could get even worse. It also might crystallize the political tensions for a few candidates like El-Sayed.
After both these elections major changes may be in the offing. Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, both longtime supporters of Israel, will need to have -- pardon the mixed religious metaphor -- a come to Jesus confrontation with AIPAC. This once powerful lobbying group has alienated many Democrats, diminishing its influence.
More substantively there will be a serious reconsideration of the almost $4 billion in annual military aid the U.S. gives to a prosperous Israel.
Ultimately, until the Palestinian state question is settled the tensions with America as well as the Europeans will persist. Eisenkot opposes any Palestinian state.
Harry Truman’s decision to recognize Israel was over the strong objections of his top advisers, most prominently Gen. George C. Marshall, the Secretary of State, who warned it would unsettle the Middle East and lead to crises and confrontations.
Marshall was right. But so was Truman, who saw it as a moral imperative. For almost 80 years America and the Jewish state have been close allies.
Without changes in both countries that may not endure.