On the eve of the Watergate-dominated1974 midterms, Republicans were hopeful their losses might be minimized with Richard Nixon out of office.
The Friday before election day Jack Calkins, who directed the House Republican campaigns, invited reporters from the New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal (me) to go over the outlook.
Calkins, a good guy and a straight shooter, predicted all the competitive contests, twice as many as today, race by race. At the end the tally: a net gain of one for the Republicans.
O my God,” said a stunned Calkins. who knew that was off.
(The next week the Democrats gained 49 House seats.)
There is a little deja vu more than a half century later. Analysts looking at seat by seat or polls giving Democrats about a five or six percentage point lead in voter preference suggest Republicans, with their two vote majority, will lose seven to ten House seats and keep control of the Senate.
If not a wave there’s at least a strong current that more likely the Democrats pick up about 20 or more House seats and four or five Senate seats to take control of both bodies. (With partisan gerrymandering of congressional districts and polarization the days of a party picking up seats like it did in 1974 or the Gop gains of 54 in 1994 or 63 in 2010, or the Democrats winning 41 seats in the first Trump midterms are over.)
Still, there are compelling reasons for impressive gains this November:
-- The most important guides for midterms are the approval rating of the incumbent President --Trump averages about 39%, exceptionally low --- and the enthusiasm level or more likely to vote, where Democrats enjoy as much as a ten point advantage.
-- The economy and the war, both big negatives for the GOP, won’t get any better in the next eleven weeks.
-- Trump is a diminished political force . At a campaign speech supposedly on agriculture in Chippewa Wisconsin, local accounts said “only a small portion” was about farmer’s problems while he elaborated on his beautiful ballroom and reflecting poll in Washington. “It was a slap in the face,” charges Rebecca Cooke, the Democratic House candidate Trump was campaigning against.
-- Democrats are fielding strong candidates. In the House challengers are a carbon copy of the stellar 2018 class, honored military veterans, small business owners, farmers, popular local elected officials.
Sometimes the numbers crunchers overlook the quality of candidates.
Republicans won the gerrymandering war a projected net gain of about a half dozen though it may be a few less.
Scandals, which so far disproportionately affect Republican House candidates, may offset that.
Ohio’s seventh congressional district in the suburbs of Cleveland and Akron wasn’t on any Red (Republican) to Blue (Democrat) list. Trump and the incumbent congressman, Max Miller, carried it by double digits in 2024. Now, however, Miller’s ex-wife is suing him for physical abuse of her and their two year old daughter. Her father, Ohio Republican U.S. Senator, Bernie Moreno, and some GOP colleagues, say Miller is unfit for office. He denies the allegations though he has a history of assault charges.
There are two important caveats to this blue bull market. One if Republicans can stick Democrats in swing states and districts with the radical socialist label. Last week’s primary defeat of a Democratic socialist gubernatorial candidate in Wisconsin makes that harder.
The other is if Trump successfully sabotages the election in key places. He clearly will try; Democrats say they’re prepared; I am a little worried.
The key target for the challengers are the 20 plus House seats that Republicans carried by ten points or less in 2024. They are well positioned to win many of these.
In a wave or semi-wave year there are supposedly safe seats that come into play. In 1974 Colorado’s Don Brotzman, riding a 19 point victory two years before, lost to challenger Tim Wirth by four points. In 2008 David Obey won reelection to his Wisconsin House seats by more than 21 points. He retired. In the Republican wave of 2010, Sean Duffy captured that district by eight percentage points, almost a 30 point turnaround. Abigail Spanberger, now Governor, of Virginia, won her House seat in 2018 defeating a Republican who had carried it by 15 points two years earlier.
There likely will be several supposedly out of reach Republican seats that will fall this time, especially when the incumbent is retiring.
A couple possible longshots: the northern Nevada district that the Republican caried by nineteen points in 2024. And the open seat along the South Carolina coast; the Democratic candidate there is retired Navy Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore.
In the Senate one pickup, North Carolina with Gov. Roy Cooper, is as close as you can get to a sure thing. Democratic strategists see five other seats where they are running at least even: Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Texas and Alaska. Like the House there might be one or two surprises such as Nebraska where independent Dan Osborn is running a strong race against an incumbent Republican.
Democrats have a challenge to defend a couple of their own seats, especially Michigan.
It’s very difficult to imagine anything that’ll change these prospects before November 3. If so, I’ll raise a glass that night to my old pal, the late Jack Calkins.