James and Al reflect on Trump’s erratic behavior amid his poorly executed midterm convention, how perception of him and MAGA is changing for the electorate, and the growing debate over AI. Then, they welcome congressional candidate from CO-08, Manny Rutinel, to discuss the importance of properly regulating AI companies and data centers, how to address the cost of living crisis, and how we can create a more equitable future. They are later joined by expert on our institutions and legal system, Ira Shapiro, to examine how Trump has disrupted the system, the scope of his corruption, and the challenge of restoring government integrity.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

More from James and Al

Get text updates from Politics War Room and Politicon.

Watch Politics War Room & James Carville Explains on YouTube.

James Carville & Al Hunt have launched the Politics War Room Substack

Get updates and some great behind-the-scenes content from the documentary CARVILLE: WINNING IS EVERYTHING, STUPID by following James on X @jamescarville and his new TikTok @realjamescarville

Get More From This Week’s Guest

Manny Rutinel: Twitter | Campaign Website | Facebook | CO.gov

Ira Shapiro: Twitter | Website | Albright Stonebridge | Author

Please Support Our Sponsors

Mint Mobile: Get premium wireless for just $15 per month at mintmobile.com/warroom

Casper: Right now, save up to 20% on mattresses when you go to Casper.com

Superpower: Head to Superpower.com and use code WARROOM at checkout for $50 off your membership. Get 150+ biomarkers tested every year plus a personalized health plan and on-demand care team. Detect early signs of 1,000+ conditions. #superpowerpod

There are few disquieting trends. The Connecticut Mirror and KFF Health did an exhaustive study of health care legal actions in that state. Most of these cases now are being brought by doctors or physician groups rather than hospitals, a reversal of only a few years earlier.

It’s true that of over 25,000 licensed physicians and dentists in the state only about 400 filed lawsuits over unpaid bills. The trend, however, is notable.

With investors, like private equity, buying up medical groups, it might get worse. A subsidiary of Team Health, a Tennessee physicians’ firm owned by Blackstone, brought some 4,800 lawsuits against medical patients in Shelby County, TN. After news organizations revealed this practice, the company said it was halting any suits.

To be sure, taking legal action against deadbeat patients with sizeable debts is understandable.

Too often these are relatively small bills and before suits or sending people to jail, a system for stretched out repayment or dropping it is the better option.

In the Connecticut reporting, Allie Cass-Wilson, a nurse with an OB-GYN bill from years before, was not allowed to propose a payment schedule. The medical practice then blackballed her from future care.

In Kansas, Joe Vasquez owed $4,561 for an emergency hysterectomy his wife had several years earlier. He missed a court date and Marshall’s attack dogs pounced.

Although he was on disability the cops, under the orders of the Marshall team, arrested the couple in front of their grandchildren; they spent two nights in jail before getting a loan to pay bail. Eventually he worked out a repayment schedule over eight years which should have been the first option.

Kellie Clutts, a nurse, had a $129 charge for a postpartum visit after her daughter’s birth nine months earlier. Recently divorced with little money she asked to make partial payments. The Marshall team rejected that and garnished her bank account.

It’s up to the voters of Kansas to decide whether Sen. Marshall deserves reelection. And his many patients can judge his medical competence.

But when a millionaire files over 700 legal actions, charging usurious interest and sends scores of patients to jail, most for relatively small debts, that’s a character test.

Roger Marshall flunks.

James and Al eviscerate Trump’s midterm convention, share encouraging news about Kansas, analyze the factors most salient to voters, and make some 2026 predictions. Then, they welcome congressional candidate Zach Dembo for KY-06 to discuss corruption, healthcare, and winning over rural voters. They address the need to meet constituents where they are, the potential to win over independents, how raising the Social Security tax cap is a winning way to tackle income inequality and keep our country solvent, and the importance of restoring Medicaid and ACA subsidies.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

More from James and Al

Get text updates from Politics War Room and Politicon.

Watch Politics War Room & James Carville Explains on YouTube.

James Carville & Al Hunt have launched the Politics War Room Substack

Get updates and some great behind-the-scenes content from the documentary CARVILLE: WINNING IS EVERYTHING, STUPID by following James on X @jamescarville and his new TikTok @realjamescarville

Get More From This Week’s Guest

Zach Dembo: Twitter | Campaign Website | Facebook | Instagram

Please Support Our Sponsors

Quince: Upgrade your fall fashion and get 365-day returns and free shipping on high-quality, stylish, and affordable clothing you’ll wear for years to come when you go to quince.com/warroom or download the Quince app. Now available in Canada and the United Kingdom.

3 Day Blinds: For their buy 1 get 1 50% off deal, head to 3DayBlinds.com/WARROOM

Trust & Will: Get 20% off when you go to trustandwill.com/WARROOM

Miracle Made: Upgrade your sleep with Miracle Made! Go to TryMiracle.com/warroom and use the code WARROOM to claim your FREE 3-PIECE TOWEL SET and SAVE over 40% OFF.

​

On October 27, a week before the U.S. elections, Israel will decide whether to replace or retain Prime Minister Benjamin Netanhayu.

Though the ultimate survivor, serving over 18 years as Prime Minister, the expectation is he’ll lose. Despite successful strikes against Iran, wiping out much of their leadership, he remains deeply unpopular in Israel, blamed for the disastrous October 2023 Hamas surprise terrorist attack and an unwillingness to accept any accountability.

With the country’s crazy-quilt political system -- there are dozens of parties and any that gets 3.25% of the vote gets a seat in the Knesset -- it’ll be weeks after the election before the governing coalition is formed.

A clear Netanhayu defeat would be welcome news politically for many Democrats who have been caught in the crosshairs between anti-Israel activists and strong Jewish supporters. They might hail the possibility of a new start in American-Israel relations.

Yet whatever the immediate euphoria, the tension will endure as then the prospect of a Palestinian two state solution seems as distant as ever.

American views about Israel are at the lowest point since Harry Truman first recognized the Jewish state in 1948. There have been other points of difference, like the 1956 Suez crisis when President Eisenhower backed down the Israelis, but they were more specific and shorter.

Today Israel and its leader are no longer supported by most Americans. For the first time polls show the Palestinian cause is more popular.

To be sure, some of this is the always present anti-semitism. That is the case with some of the radical left wing politicians who have scored a handful of victories this year. Some of their supporters, influencers, are virulently anti-semitic.

The most visible candidate is Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive and a Muslim. Unlike some of the radicals he is working to mend relations with the state’s Jewish voters. Jews and Muslims both represent less than 2% of the electorate but matter in a close contest; the 2024 Michigan Senate race was decided by less than 20,000 votes.

Antisemitism may be more prevalent among Republicans though it receives less attention. There are antisemites in the second ranks of the Trump Administration; some young Republican confabs are full of anti-Israel rantings, and the third place finisher in the Florida gubernatorial primary last month was a white nationalist antisemite.

The schism is actually aggravated by the prime Israeli lobby in America. The American-Israel Political Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is seen these days primarily as a Netanhayu cheerleader.

The dramatic decline in public support has deeper causes; the Israeli Prime Minister and his government are at the top of the list. One survey even showed New York’s anti-Israel mayor, Zohran Mamdani, more popular among Jewish voters than Netanyahu.

More than a few Republicans, almost all privately, blame Netanhayu for conning Trump into the disastrous Iran War. Even Trump may not be all that displeased if the prime minister is a gone,

The majority of Democrats intensely dislike the Israeli Prime Minister, citing his brutality, 73,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, and arrogance, the foreign leader addressed Congress to oppose President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran.

Thus, replacing him is a necessary condition for a reset of American attitudes toward Israel. But it won’t be sufficient.

A new government headed by the current front runner, Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, could undo some of the ill will generated by Netanyahu.

It could crack down on the settlers who daily terrorize Palestinians on the West Bank. The current national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, is a settler himself and supports these criminal acts. The New York Times reported that a number of former Israeli Generals and intelligence officials accuse the settlers of engaging in ethnic cleansing that ultimately poses a grave threat to the Jewish state.

That and a more measured policy on Gaza would help with U.S. relations.

Conversely, if Netanhayu pulls an upset days before the American elections, relations could get even worse. It also might crystallize the political tensions for a few candidates like El-Sayed.

After both these elections major changes may be in the offing. Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, both longtime supporters of Israel, will need to have -- pardon the mixed religious metaphor -- a come to Jesus confrontation with AIPAC. This once powerful lobbying group has alienated many Democrats, diminishing its influence.

More substantively there will be a serious reconsideration of the almost $4 billion in annual military aid the U.S. gives to a prosperous Israel.

Ultimately, until the Palestinian state question is settled the tensions with America as well as the Europeans will persist. Eisenkot opposes any Palestinian state.

Harry Truman’s decision to recognize Israel was over the strong objections of his top advisers, most prominently Gen. George C. Marshall, the Secretary of State, who warned it would unsettle the Middle East and lead to crises and confrontations.

Marshall was right. But so was Truman, who saw it as a moral imperative. For almost 80 years America and the Jewish state have been close allies.

Without changes in both countries that may not endure.

James and Al compare Trump’s favorability to Congress, the value of youth in politics, the politicization of the military under MAGA, the explosion of corruption, and how democrats can win in the midterms. Then, they welcome congressional candidate for FL-07, Bale Dalton, to speak on corruption, affordability, and tariffs with a focus on the value of a military background and a dedication to public service in the current environment. Finally, they are joined by Fairfax County Supervisor Jimmy Bierman to explore the politics and impact of data centers on voters and the public.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

More from James and Al

Get text updates from Politics War Room and Politicon.

Watch Politics War Room & James Carville Explains on YouTube.

James Carville & Al Hunt have launched the Politics War Room Substack

Get updates and some great behind-the-scenes content from the documentary CARVILLE: WINNING IS EVERYTHING, STUPID by following James on X @jamescarville and his new TikTok @realjamescarville

Get More From This Week’s Guests

Bale Dalton: Twitter | Campaign Website

Jimmy Bierman: Website | Fairfax County.gov

Please Support Our Sponsor

Hers W.L.: Ready to reach your weight loss goals? Visit forhers.com/warroom to get personalized, affordable care that gets you.

Disney and ABC may be learning the perils of feeding a crocodile. Winston Churchill warned those that feed the crocodile will eventually be eaten by him.

In the month before Trump took office last year, ABC, owned by Disney, paid off Trump $16 million over a baseless suit he had filed against the broadcaster. This was a business calculation, selling out journalistic principles, to curry favor with the new Administration.

Now the Federal Communications Chairman Brendan Carr, a Trump loyalist, is threatening, in an unprecedented move, to strip ABC of its eight owned lucrative stations charging they’re too anti-Trump. In response, ABC is suing the FCC to head off this intimidation; underscoring the seriousness, one of the lawyers the company enlisted is Paul Clement, the most prominent conservative Supreme Court litigator.

You can’t buy off crocodiles or bullies, ABC, and this belated resistance won’t restore the reputational damage suffered.

The worst of the bully-capitulators may be the nine big law firms who surrendered to Trump’s objections to some of the lawyers they employed and clients they represented. There were no suggestions of impropriety. Trump just wanted revenge against adversaries.

The firms -- Paul Weiss; A&O Shearman; Cadwalader Wickersham & Taft; Kirkland & Ellis;, Latham and Watkins; Skadden Arps; Milbank; Willkie Farr & Gallagher and Simpson Thacher & Bartlett.--committed up to $1 billion to Trump causes to avoid any actions against them, which some claimed might endanger their survival.

More likely it was wealthy partners who didn’t want to see their compensation drop from $7 million to say $5 million or as President Obama said some “might not be able to finish that kitchen rehabilitation at their Hampton house.”

The contrast is with four Washington firms that stood up to Trump: WilmerHale, Susman Godfrey, Jenner & Block and Perkins Coie. They won decisively in court. Trump says he’s still appealing, that’s for show. These firms beat the bully and in contrast to those others, Judge Beryl Howell declared, will be ‘models” for standing up for constitutional rights when history is written.

There is a semi-similar story with higher education. Under the guise of stamping out antisemitism and ending diversity programs the Administration is slashing funding and setting new regulations if the institutions don’t accede. Some like Columbia surrendered.

Others like Brown, the University of Pennsylvania and the University of California at Berkeley partially gave in. Harvard and UCLA are among the few who stood firm and while they still will lose federal funds they are winning in court.

The duplicity of most of these actions was underscored by a former Justice Department official turned whistle blower, Haley Van Erem, She said she and colleagues were given politically-driven orders from above. The antisemitism charge, she said, was just a pretext for a “predetermined outcome driven by an approach to enforcement rather than a fact-based investigative process.”

Shamefully, few law firms or Universities came to the defense of their wrongly accused colleagues.

With a Democratic Congress and/or Administration, much of this will come out. It will be like the aftermath of the McCarthy witch-hunt era; some grandchildren will be proud, others won’t.

In the media there are a few profiles in courage. The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times refused to be bullied, stood up to outrageous Trump charges and are winning. in the courts.

So is legendary pollster Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. Trump sued them for a Selzer poll that showed him losing Iowa which he won comfortably. Reputable polls typically state the result is within the margin of error 95% of the time. All pollsters have a few lemons. Very few, if any, can match Selzer’s sterling record or reputation.

This is a disgraceful case. It’s still in state court though Selzer will prevail. The judge said that Trump’s charge could have a “chilling effect” on free speech.

On the other side, CBS’ reputation was stained when it settled a Trump defamation suit over the way it edited a 60 Minutes interview with Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

It was an absurd charge -- broadcast and print interviews often are edited, it’s a subjective process; good or bad this certainly wasn’t legally actionable. But CBS-Paramount were seeking the new Administration’s approval for a merger so they sacrificed journalistic principles for financial gain.

So did ABC when the President sued over anchor George Stephanopoulos saying that Trump had raped E. Jean Carroll. Trump was found by a jury not guilty of rape but was convicted of sexual assault. However the judge, Lewis Kaplan, explained that was due to New York state’s “narrow definition” of rape and that Trump raped her “as many people commonly understand the word.”

Stephanopoulos was careless but Trump had no chance of winning a defamation suit. ABC figured they could buy peace. With the FCC’s latest action maybe they learned a bully, like a crocodile, always comes back for more.

“Defending the First Amendment is not fighting for a free press. It’s fighting for a free nation,” declares Michael Gartner, former President of NBC News , and former editor of the Des Moines Register and Ames Tribune. “These guys should have learned that in junior high. But better late than never.”

James and Al warn of Trump’s enduring strength with the base after the win of Lindsey Graham’s sister in South Carolina, while emphasizing the overall decline in support for MAGA. Then, they welcome Stanford Law Professor Pam Karlan to discuss SCOTUS and its recent rulings, explain the shadow docket, and the defense of our democracy coming from lower-level judges and our Constitution. Then, they are joined by congressional candidate for VA-02 and Navy veteran Elaine Luria to review Trump’s disastrous effect on our military readiness and the need to focus 2026 midterm campaigns on affordability, healthcare, and bringing the war in Iran to a close.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

More from James and Al

Get text updates from Politics War Room and Politicon.

Watch Politics War Room & James Carville Explains on YouTube.

James Carville & Al Hunt have launched the Politics War Room Substack

Get updates and some great behind-the-scenes content from the documentary CARVILLE: WINNING IS EVERYTHING, STUPID by following James on X @jamescarville and his new TikTok @realjamescarville

Get More From This Week’s Guests

Professor Pam Karlan: Stanford Law | DOJ.gov | Supreme Court Litigation Clinic

Elaine Luria: Website | congress.gov | navy.mil

Please Support Our Sponsors

Hers W.L.: Ready to reach your weight loss goals? Visit forhers.com/warroom to get personalized, affordable care that gets you.

Superpower: Head to Superpower.com and use code WARROOM at checkout for $20 off your membership. Get 100+ biomarkers tested every year, plus a personalized health plan and on-demand care team. Detect early signs of 1,000+ conditions. #superpowerpod

Casper: Right now, save up to 30% on mattresses and up to 35% on everything else when you go to Casper.com.

For most two term U.S. Presidents the first is the more successful, opposed to the “curse of the second term.”
Yet most of these Presidents seek some legacy second term achievements. For Eisenhower it was the creation of a space agency and, unexpectedly, civil rights. For Reagan it was moderating the cold war with the Russians; for Obama it was a deal to halt Iran’s quest for at for a nuclear weapon and straightening out his poorly launched health care plan.
For Donald Trump his second terms actually seems far better as there are almost no restrictions and he lacks any substantive vision. Conservative columnist George Will called it a “frivolous and oblivious” Presidency.”
Trump is not oblivious to the two Rs; getting richer and getting retribution.
Both endeavors are corrupt.
“Most Presidents want to get something meaningful in a second term; that has eluded Trump,” says Douglas Brinkley a Presidential historian at Rice University. “He sees American Democracy as a gouge.”
A perfect example. He went to war in Iran to stop them from getting a nuclear weapon, which he declared would be an existential threat; he worried about nuclear proliferation.
Absent the quick victory he now seems bored and looking for an Iran exit strategy. As for his determination on nuclear proliferation, he’s renewing his bromance with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, who already possesses nuclear weapons.
He tried that in 2018. Trump got some love letters from the little dictator; Kim Jong Un now has three times as many nuclear warheads.
Trump has achieved a new category for Presidential greed. Anything he touches, he wants a piece of.
A Reuters poll last week found a strong majority of the public believe Trump is illicitly profiting from the Presidency and that it’s inappropriate for the Trumps to earn money from cryptocurrency.
Trump doesn’t believe it and as second term President, with no guardrails, it’s the press and the public be damned as he builds massive wealth while real wages decline for the average workers.
His overall revenue has increased three fold. The biggest scam is the crypto racket where he makes billions and other influence seekers, some foreign, take the losses.
The crypto business is right down Trump’s alley: legally dubious, with lax enforcement.
He has made real estate deals around the world, accepted a $500 million airplane from Qatar, made over 25,000 stock trades, some seemingly based on inside information.
He peddles merchandise with the Trump brand, even keeping a stock room right off the oval office. His children have raked in hundreds of millions more with special government-related investments.
In a terrific story last week, the Wall Street Journal reported Trump has a personal fundraiser, Margaret O’Rourke, who he calls “the Princess of darkness,” who solicits contributions for him from business and special interests. To date, the paper calculates, they’ve hauled in more than $800 million.
What we know may be only the top of the financial shakedowns.
The other priority is revenge get all those perceived enemies. That this is pure retribution using a Justice Department eager to serve his commands.
To be specific, indictments have been sought, among others, of Democratic Senators Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin and four House members --all veterans -- for declaring military personnel should not obey illegal orders; Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell for refusing to cut interest rates; former FBI director James Comey for not stopping the investigation into the Trump-Russian connection in his first term, and New York Attorney General Letitia James for suing his business interests.
These cases were so fraudulent they were rejected by a grand jury -- exceedingly rare -- -or thrown out by a judge.
They’re still after Comey on another specious charge, and have their sights on Barack Obama’s CIA director John Brennan.
Famed journalist Bob Woodward, who broke many of the stories about the Watergate scandal, says Trump is far more “reckless” and a greater “danger to democracy” than Nixon.
It’s separate from his pervasive criminality but Trump’s perverse ego is a stain on the office and the country. Since the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts was created there have been ten other Presidents. None had the chutzpah or vulgarity to try to add their name to that of the martyred President. Trump did, it was rejected by a judge but he’s back trying again.
There never has been an airport named for a sitting President until last month: the Palm Beach International Airport became the Donald J Trump International Airport.
Some critics hope that when/if the Democrats take charge of Congress after the midterms, they can rein in Trump. That may be wishful thinking. More likely it will just drive him to more secretive abuses.
“With the exception of the Civil War,” notes historian Douglas Brinkley, “this is the most dangerous period in American history.”

James and Al explore the recent primaries in Florida and Alaska, Trump’s waning influence, and the meaning of the results as they look ahead to the midterms. Then, they welcome congressional candidate for OH-07, Brian Poindexter, to discuss workers’ rights, what it would take to win over voters in his district, and the value of making tariffs actually work for the average person and of fixing healthcare for those in need. They are also joined by the congressional candidate John Vincent from SC-07 to discuss the dereliction of duty by Trump and his minions regarding the military, how to win as a Democrat in a red state, and how to support our military.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

More from James and Al

Get text updates from Politics War Room and Politicon.

Watch Politics War Room & James Carville Explains on YouTube.

James Carville & Al Hunt have launched the Politics War Room Substack

Get updates and some great behind-the-scenes content from the documentary CARVILLE: WINNING IS EVERYTHING, STUPID by following James on X @jamescarville and his new TikTok @realjamescarville

Get More From This Week’s Guests

John Vincent: Twitter | Website

Brian Poindexter: Twitter | Website | Facebook

Please Support Our Sponsors

Trust & Will: Get 20% off when you go to trustandwill.com/WARROOM

Miracle Made: Upgrade your sleep with Miracle Made! Go to TryMiracle.com/warroom and use the code WARROOM to claim your FREE 3-PIECE TOWEL SET and SAVE over 40% OFF.

Hers W.L.: Ready to reach your weight loss goals? Visit forhers.com/warroom to get personalized, affordable care that gets you.

Mint Mobile: Get premium wireless for just $15 per month at mintmobile.com/warroom

Todd Blanche told the Senate Republicans he would be an attorney general who would not play politics. It worked. He got confirmed by a vote. Within a week, the same Blanche refused to say he would ever make a decision independent of his boss, Donald Trump.

He then went and he campaigned with Trump and with the eminently unqualified FBI director, Kash Patel, in New York for the GOP gubernatorial candidate. He was there at that rally. You know, it’s highly unusual for an attorney general to hit the campaign trail like that. But then again, Blanche is a highly unusual attorney general.

He serves not the public, he serves one man, Donald J. Trump. his message by going to the New York rally and his other statements to Senators Tom Tillis, John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy, who thought they got various assurances and provided the winning votes, Blanche’s message to them was simple. Hey, suckers.

The Friday before election day Jack Calkins, who directed the House Republican campaigns, invited reporters from the New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal (me) to go over the outlook.
Calkins, a good guy and a straight shooter, predicted all the competitive contests, twice as many as today, race by race. At the end the tally: a net gain of one for the Republicans.
O my God,” said a stunned Calkins. who knew that was off.
(The next week the Democrats gained 49 House seats.)
There is a little deja vu more than a half century later. Analysts looking at seat by seat or polls giving Democrats about a five or six percentage point lead in voter preference suggest Republicans, with their two vote majority, will lose seven to ten House seats and keep control of the Senate.​
If not a wave there’s at least a strong current that more likely the Democrats pick up about 20 or more House seats and four or five Senate seats to take control of both bodies. (With partisan gerrymandering of congressional districts and polarization the days of a party picking up seats like it did in 1974 or the Gop gains of 54 in 1994 or 63 in 2010, or the Democrats winning 41 seats in the first Trump midterms are over.)

Still, there are compelling reasons for impressive gains this November:
-- The most important guides for midterms are the approval rating of the incumbent President --Trump averages about 39%, exceptionally low --- and the enthusiasm level or more likely to vote, where Democrats enjoy as much as a ten point advantage.
-- The economy and the war, both big negatives for the GOP, won’t get any better in the next eleven weeks.
-- Trump is a diminished political force . At a campaign speech supposedly on agriculture in Chippewa Wisconsin, local accounts said “only a small portion” was about farmer’s problems while he elaborated on his beautiful ballroom and reflecting poll in Washington. “It was a slap in the face,” charges Rebecca Cooke, the Democratic House candidate Trump was campaigning against.

-- Democrats are fielding strong candidates. In the House challengers are a carbon copy of the stellar 2018 class, honored military veterans, small business owners, farmers, popular local elected officials.
Sometimes the numbers crunchers overlook the quality of candidates.
Republicans won the gerrymandering war a projected net gain of about a half dozen though it may be a few less.
Scandals, which so far disproportionately affect Republican House candidates, may offset that.
Ohio’s seventh congressional district in the suburbs of Cleveland and Akron wasn’t on any Red (Republican) to Blue (Democrat) list. Trump and the incumbent congressman, Max Miller, carried it by double digits in 2024. Now, however, Miller’s ex-wife is suing him for physical abuse of her and their two year old daughter. Her father, Ohio Republican U.S. Senator, Bernie Moreno, and some GOP colleagues, say Miller is unfit for office. He denies the allegations though he has a history of assault charges.
There are two important caveats to this blue bull market. One if Republicans can stick Democrats in swing states and districts with the radical socialist label. Last week’s primary defeat of a Democratic socialist gubernatorial candidate in Wisconsin makes that harder.
The other is if Trump successfully sabotages the election in key places. He clearly will try; Democrats say they’re prepared; I am a little worried.
The key target for the challengers are the 20 plus House seats that Republicans carried by ten points or less in 2024. They are well positioned to win many of these.
In a wave or semi-wave year there are supposedly safe seats that come into play. In 1974 Colorado’s Don Brotzman, riding a 19 point victory two years before, lost to challenger Tim Wirth by four points. In 2008 David Obey won reelection to his Wisconsin House seats by more than 21 points. He retired. In the Republican wave of 2010, Sean Duffy captured that district by eight percentage points, almost a 30 point turnaround. Abigail Spanberger, now Governor, of Virginia, won her House seat in 2018 defeating a Republican who had carried it by 15 points two years earlier.
There likely will be several supposedly out of reach Republican seats that will fall this time, especially when the incumbent is retiring.
A couple possible longshots: the northern Nevada district that the Republican caried by nineteen points in 2024. And the open seat along the South Carolina coast; the Democratic candidate there is retired Navy Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore.
In the Senate one pickup, North Carolina with Gov. Roy Cooper, is as close as you can get to a sure thing. Democratic strategists see five other seats where they are running at least even: Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Texas and Alaska. Like the House there might be one or two surprises such as Nebraska where independent Dan Osborn is running a strong race against an incumbent Republican.
Democrats have a challenge to defend a couple of their own seats, especially Michigan.
It’s very difficult to imagine anything that’ll change these prospects before November 3. If so, I’ll raise a glass that night to my old pal, the late Jack Calkins.

James and Al cover yesterday’s primary results and weigh the influence of Trump and the DSA on their respective parties going into the midterm elections. Then, they welcome congressional candidate for WI-03, Rebecca Cooke, to discuss the reasons she won her recent primary, her plans to unite the factions of the party into a big tent for the general election, and the effect of big tech on local economies. Afterward, they are joined by the author of the 2024 Democratic Party autopsy report, Paul Rivera, to explain the findings, take the party and the DNC to task, and lay out the changes the party needs to make going forward.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

More from James and Al

Get text updates from Politics War Room and Politicon.

Watch Politics War Room & James Carville Explains on YouTube.

James Carville & Al Hunt have launched the Politics War Room Substack

Get updates and some great behind-the-scenes content from the documentary CARVILLE: WINNING IS EVERYTHING, STUPID by following James on X @jamescarville and his new TikTok @realjamescarville

Get More From This Week’s Guests

Rebecca Cooke: Twitter | Website | Facebook | Instagram

Paul Rivera: The Capacity Shop | New Left Accelerator | 2024 Autopsy

Please Support Our Sponsors

Smalls: Get 60% off your first order, plus free shipping and free treats for life, when you head to Smalls.com/WARROOM

Aqua Tru: Go to AquaTru.com now for 20% off your purifier using promo code: WARROOM

3 Day Blinds: For their buy 1, get 1 50% off deal, head to 3DayBlinds.com/WARROOM

Hers W.L.: Ready to reach your weight loss goals? Visit forhers.com/warroom to get personalized, affordable care that gets you.

When The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts opened fifty five years ago, it changed Washington. The once sleepy southern centric capital became a cultural hub for performers from around the world. Opera, ballet, modern dance, symphonies, theater, jazz, folk music, so much more, even memorial services. Two thousand events a year.

Nothing stopped this great citadel of culture as the legendary George Stevens Jr., who produced the Kennedy Center honors for many years, among other achievements there, noted if the opera house closed temporarily for repairs, the Eisenhower Theater and the concert hall kept going. That is until Donald Trump, who now plans to close the center for two years, perhaps permanently, as his hacks, his lackeys were totally incompetent in trying to run this national treasure.

For more than half a century, the Kennedy Center has brought joy and inspiration to Republicans and Democrats, independents, and people who didn’t give a damn about politics. That is, until Donald Trump. This is not just a Washington tragedy, it’s a national and international tragedy.

A Washington without this treasure on the banks of the Potomac is a different and a much lesser place.

Inbox

-

Donald Trump correctly predicted his self-styled Big Beautiful Bill would be a winner in this year’s midterms elections.

It is ... for Democrats.

Most Democratic candidates in competitive races are emphasizing the bill’s huge cuts in Medicaid, the steep increase in Americans without health insurance while giving the wealthy big tax cuts. Republicans , often on the defensive, stress provisions like limiting tax on tips or overtime and claim the Medicaid cuts were about eliminating waste fraud and abuse.

A Washington Post survey found that Congressional Democrats talk about the law twice as often as Republicans according to an analysis of public statements and social media posts.

On a podcast I’ve interviewed a dozen Democratic challengers from New Jersey to Arizona. Every one has been eager to talk about the problems caused by the Big Beautiful Bill.

The measure passed by a single vote so Republicans can’t easily finesse the bill. Some, like Wisconsin’s Derrick Van Orden, outrightly deny the BBB cut Medicaid spending. Iowa’s Zach Nunn, was so angered by a question from a Democratic tracker, he smashed the phone.

Others reframe the issue. California Rep. David Valadao’s Central Valley district has the highest number of Medicaid recipients of any GOP member so he changes the focus. “Obviously there was the health care component,” he acknowledged, “But obviously the tax component was the most important portion of the bill that we were mostly focused on.”

A Politico poll found most half respondents didn’t know much about the bill; more people said it hurt them than helped them.

White House and congressional leaders are urging candidates to call it “The Working Families Tax Cuts,” not the Big Beautiful bill. But starting with Trump and now the media and Democrats it’s the BBB.

There was real GOP optimism when Trump signed the legislation July 4 a year ago. It would be a huge job creator, cut taxes. boost real wages, a bonanza for farmers, lower the debt and expand heath care.

Even by Trumpian standards the claims were outsized He said the bill was “perhaps the most important and greatest of its kind in history.”

His Amen chorus was right behind him. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted an immediate boost in real wages as 2026 “can be a very good year.”

Real wages have been stagnant since the bill passed.

There were tax cuts that primarily benefitted the rich. Provisions ending the tax on tips and overtime helped some workers, not nearly as many as advertised.

Thirteen months after the bill passed it’s not a pretty picture economically though there are other factors not just BBB. Over four million American have lost health insurance, primarily because Trump let the Obamacare enhanced tax credit expire and five million more no longer have SNAP or nutritional assistance.

Farm income, adjusted for inflation is expected to fall 2.6% from a year ago with the separate Trump tariffs a factor. The deficit has grown and while predictions of a recession were wrong, job growth has been modest.

About 400,000 jobs have been added over the past year. The final year of the Biden Presidency saw 2.2 million additional jobs.

On the stump, twelve weeks before the election, these figures and the BBB is front and center for most Democratic candidates.

Rural hospitals, affected by Medicaid cuts, are in danger of closing; a few already have. Zach Nunn’s Iowa challenger seizes on this; “My congressman said it was a myth that it (the BBB) was going to close rural hospitals,” says Sarah Trone Garriott. “It is already happening.”

In Scranton, Pa., Democrat Paige Cogentti charges Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan sold Medicaid-related stocks and then voted for bill that cuts Medicaid.

As the President’s popularity sinks, more challengers are linking their opponents to Trump and the BBB, Citing Rep. Jan Kiggans vote for the bill, challenger Elaine Luria claims Virginians are paying a price for the incumbent putting “loyalty to Trump over their own community.”

Some Republicans, like New York’s Mike Lawler, are holding fast, championing the Big Beautiful Bill. He boasts about increasing the deduction for state and local taxes to $40,000 from $10,000, a real benefit to those generally making $200,000 to $500,000. He reminds constituents often of the tax exemption for some tips and overtime pay.

On defense, Lawler says the Medicaid cuts eliminated waste fraud and benefits for illegal immigrants. Actually undocumented migrants always have been ineligible for Medicaid.

Lawler faces one if the toughest Democratic challengers, decorated Army veteran, Cait Conley, who doesn’t let him off the hook. She notes before the 2017 Trump tax cut there was no cap on state and local tax deductions so just increasing it to $40,000 is inadequate.

On the health care policies she charges thousands of Hudson Valley residents have lost health care coverage because of Lawler’s vote.

She is brutally dismissive of Lawler’s claims about the bill: “The guy is a con artist.”

James and Al give their take on the Michigan primary and push back against the DSA and their candidates while the future of the party is at stake. Then, they welcome Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist David Wessel to discuss the resilience of the US economy, the danger Trump has put us in, foreign currency interventions, and the need to address the national debt. They also welcome IA-03 congressional candidate Sarah Trone Garriott to explore her faith, winning in a Midwestern Red state, the perils of ideological labels when elections are on the line, agricultural politics, and how to create a bigger tent that can win in enemy territory.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

More from James and Al

Get text updates from Politics War Room and Politicon.

Watch Politics War Room & James Carville Explains on YouTube.

James Carville & Al Hunt have launched the Politics War Room Substack

Get updates and some great behind-the-scenes content from the documentary CARVILLE: WINNING IS EVERYTHING, STUPID by following James on X @jamescarville and his new TikTok @realjamescarville

Get More From This Week’s Guests

Sarah Trone Garriott: Twitter | Website | Iowa.gov | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok

David Wessel: Twitter | Website | Brookings | WSJ | Author

Please Support Our Sponsors

Miracle Made: Upgrade your sleep with Miracle Made! Go to TryMiracle.com/warroom and use the code WARROOM to claim your FREE 3-PIECE TOWEL SET and SAVE over 40% OFF.

Mint Mobile: Get premium wireless for just $15 per month at mintmobile.com/warroom

Trust & Will: Get 20% off when you go to trustandwill.com/WARROOM

Quince: Upgrade your summer fashion and get 365-day returns and free shipping on high-quality, stylish, and affordable clothing you’ll wear for years to come when you go to quince.com/warroom. Now available in Canada and the United Kingdom.

You know, it would have been malpractice for any lawyer who didn’t tell Anthony Fauci to take the Fifth Amendment before a Senate committee witch hunt last week. The Senate Republicans were looking for any opening, phony though it would be, to ask the Justice Department to indict Fauci, a demand of the MAGA wing and of Donald Trump. And the Todd Blanche Justice Department will indict anyone they’re ordered to. Already grand juries and judges and unprecedented numbers have thrown out some of these corrupt charges.

There were several other beyond the pale outrages that day. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., HHS Secretary, sent Tony Fauci’s private emails, or they were done on government computers, some were potentially embarrassing, to Rand Paul, the right-wing committee chair. How many times will RFK Jr. soil the family legacy?

But maybe the worst was Josh Hawley, a Yale law school graduate, John Roberts Clerk. He knows the Fifth Amendment is a constitutional protection. But he decided instead to play cheap games, asking Fauci what color was his tie, knowing full well if you take the fifth once you have to keep taking it. Hawley must have been watching old Joe McCarthy clips, because that’s the way he acted. You know, when Donald Trump took the Fifth Amendment four hundred and forty times, Hawley was just cheering him on.

But it’s no surprise. On January 6th, Hawley gave a fist bump to the riders outside the Capitol, urging them on. When they stormed the Capitol, there was video of Hawley running like a scared jackrabbit. Once a coward, always a coward.

-

Recent polls on the 2028 Presidential race find the same Democratic front runners: Kamala Harrris, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
I’ll give you those four and take the other possibilities and not even ask for points.
That reflects shortcomings of the Top Four, especially Harris, but more it reflects history and an understanding that politics is not a static business, the environment and conditions change.
Politicians and the press should focus predominately on this November’s critical elections, and not the next Presidential contest. (I’m violating this for the last time until after Nov. 3)
For 2028, where will the economy be ? What will be the outcome of the disastrous Iran war ? How about Ukraine ? How will the politics of A-I play out, will China have caught or surpassed the U.S. ? What will be Donald Trump’s political and cognitive state ? How about the outcome of this November’s elections which will help shape the Presidential contest ?
I learned this lesson in the first midterms I covered. It was 1974; when polls or pundits focused on the next Presidential race --President Nixon was in his second term and facing impeachment --a Georgia peanut farmer and Governor wasn’t on any radar screen. That was Jimmy Carter.
It’s also worth recalling some of the front-runners at this stage: Republicans Rudy Guiliani and Jeb Bush and Democrats Gary Hart and Mario Cuomo. None got to measure the drapes in the Oval office.
These early 2028 surveys primarily reflect name recognition. Some of those voters forget about Harris’ miserable 2019 presidential campaign or even in 2024 when she got the nomination after President Biden dropped out and ran a mediocre campaign. Supporters say she got break when the Democrats made South Carolina, with a large number of black voters, the initial primary in 2028.
South Carolina provided decisive in the nominations of Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. That was when it was fourth ---the clean up hitter -- sorting out earlier splits decisions.
The left-wing mainstream debate, intensifying this year, likely will be even more inflamed in a Presidential year. There will be divisive debates over Israel, a government run health care system, immigration and other issues.
The most compelling candidate on the left is AOC a talented politician. I’d be surprised if she could win in swing districts or competitive states.
In following a unpopular President, the premium is on finding someone totally different, a counter to the incumbent.
With Trump that’s a large menu. Most of the leading Democratic Governors should do pretty well on that score.
Finally -- after spending most of a column disowning my own dictum about deemphasizing the next Presidential race -- it always depends on how a top tier candidate adapts to the major leagues of politics. Barack Obama did; Jeb Bush didn’t.
One more violation: The media loves to speculate on a possible GOP competition between J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. That may hinge on Trump’s whim of the moment. OMG.
The November elections will play a significant role. If Republicans hold on to Congress it’ll be a huge reaffirmation of Trump, despite the polls. He will be the political king.
For dispirited Democrats it would give impetus to the left -- “we’ve tried it your way and failed.”
If instead Democrats win the House, and perhaps the Senate, how they perform will be important. A party riven by ideological battles and overreaching will make it harder to suggest it’s ready to govern.
A party reasonably united and holding Trump accountable, will set a favorable predicate for the Presidential election.
Predictably the hopefuls will go all out to help Democratic candidates this fall. It’ll be interesting to see which national figures are welcomed by Senate candidates James Talarico in Texas or Josh Turek in Iowa.
Nothing is better than delivering in your own state. If Pennyslvania’s Josh Shapiro wins a big gubernatorial reelection and his coattails carry three Democratic House challengers with him, politicians will take notice.
The next Presidential race will kick in full gear by year end. For the next thirteen weeks, however, all the focus should be on the midterms.
Two years from now we’ll collect on my earlier wager.

James and Al fight back on Dr. Fauci’s behalf after Republican attacks on him and his legacy and discuss the influence of the Democratic Socialists on the party and the upcoming midterms before welcoming congressional candidate for NE-02, Denise Powell. They dive into the state of her race for a winnable district in a notoriously red state, looking at the prominence of the agriculture industry, concerns about the budget deficit, and fair tax policies. They also emphasize the need to focus on affordability and explore her journey into politics, why she’s running, and why she can win.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

More from James and Al

Get text updates from Politics War Room and Politicon.

Watch Politics War Room & James Carville Explains on YouTube.

James Carville & Al Hunt have launched the Politics War Room Substack

Get updates and some great behind-the-scenes content from the documentary CARVILLE: WINNING IS EVERYTHING, STUPID by following James on X @jamescarville and his new TikTok @realjamescarville

Get More From This Week’s Guest

Denise Powell: Twitter | Website | Facebook | Instagram

Please Support Our Sponsors

Casper: Right now, save up to 20% on mattresses and up to 25% on everything else when you go to Casper.com

Hers W.L.: Ready to reach your weight loss goals? Visit forhers.com/warroom to get personalized, affordable care that gets you.

Superpower: Head to Superpower.com and use code WARROOM at checkout for $20 off your membership. Unlock your new health intelligence. 100+ biomarkers. Every year. Detect early signs of 1,000+ conditions. #superpowerpod

Humor can be a great asset for politicians when they use it effectively. But it also can be miserable when they don’t know how to do it. And that’s what we saw Friday night at the White House Correspondence Dinner with Donald Trump, who is a total stranger to effective humor. Previous presidents have used that occasion to poke fun at themselves or with real humor go after their opponents.

JFK in nineteen sixty two made fun of reporters’ expense accounts. I assure you, that’s a very, very sensitive subject. he also said that he was now convinced that there was a groundswell of support for Barry Goldwater in the 1964 Republican presidential nomination. He said that after he spent a weekend in Palm Beach, Florida.

Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty six or eighty seven, I believe it was talked about Mario Cuomo from New York, who was widely considered likely to run for president in nineteen eighty eight, seeking a Democratic nomination. And Reagan said, I’ve got good and bad news. He said, the good news is, Governor, there’s a real surge of support for an Italian nominee. But it’s for Lee Iacoca.

Clinton, Obama, and both Bush presidents used good humor at that dinner and people came away, you know, generally feeling good, despite what I think is a dinner that’s over that no longer serves a purpose.

But Trump is a man who is incapable of real humor and he’s incapable of self-deprecation because he’s too insecure. And instead, on Friday night, what he did, he engaged in mean spirited insults. He went after Caitlin Collins, the star CNN journalist who has a temerity to be a good and a tough reporter, and he made fun of fat people he didn’t like. That was ironic coming from the most obese president since William Taft in nineteen twelve. I think this dinner has outlived its useful usefulness. It certainly outlived its usefulness with Donald Trump there.