James and special guest host Mark McKinnon discuss the earth-shaking elections in Israel and Brazil, game out the midterm results and their impact on the country, and dive into the data. Then they welcome President Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod, to discuss political uncertainty, the potential for election interference, Obama and the role of past presidents in our democracy, how the Democratic Party has evolved, the need for balance within the party, why it should focus on transparency and accountability after 2024, and the rising stars who will define the next era of our politics.

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Mark McKinnon: Twitter | Instagram | The Circus | Trumped | IMDB | Wiki

David Axelrod: Twitter | UChicago Institute of Politics | American Association of Political Consultants | The Axe Files | Author

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James and special guest host, Chief Media Advisor to the Bush presidential campaigns, Mark McKinnon, discuss their rise to politics in the pre-Trump era, Texas politics, faith, corruption, the responsibility of Congress after the midterms, nominating a president, and the outrageous campaign tactics used by Republicans in the MAGA era. Then, master Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik joins them to look at the polls, Trump’s impact on the midterms, how voters perceive corruption, the shift in the opinions of working-class voters and independents, and the evolving identity of the Republican Party in the twilight years of Trump.

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Republicans argue -- hope -- that the polls are off, understating the GOP vote as they did when Trump was on the ballot. Yet in the midterms eight years ago, the actual Democratic vote exceeded the 7.3% average advantage in the final pre-election polls. Similarly the smaller Republican edge in 2022 was slightly better than the polls.

Usually in midterms the late deciding vote breaks for the opposition party.

The Republicans, especially the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, are pouring tons of money into the final weeks. That’s countered by especially impressive House and Senate challengers.

This is true across all regions. In two markedly different states politically, Pennsylvania and Iowa, Democrats could pick up a combined half dozen seats. Their candidates are competitive in deep red districts from South Carolina to Montana.

On the Senate side, a pickup of at least five seats would provide a cushion if Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman defects to the other side.

There is one sure Democratic pickup in North Carolina. In five other contests Democratic challengers are slightly ahead: Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska and Iowa.

Usually in these cases rather than splitting the difference, most go the same way. If so Democrats seem poised to win at least four, total net gain of five.

Democrats have to hold several of their seats. The main challenge is in Michigan where the left wing nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, is controversial. But the Republican candidate, former congressman Mike Rogers, has run a mediocre campaign, so Democrats are cautiously confident.

Moreover, there are a half dozen Republican-held seats, in places like Kansas and South Carolina, that weren’t on any radar screen until Trump’s precipitous decline in public support. It’s conceivable the Democrats win a couple of these longshots.

There are 36 gubernatorial elections on the Nov. 3 ballot. Republicans have a shot at winning control of a couple now held by Democrats. But Democrats expect to take over four or five GOP-held governorships, including major ones like Ohio.

If there is a blue tide Democrats could achieve a trifecta in Pennsylvania and Michigan, control of the executive and both houses of the legislature.

Predictably, the 2028 presidential aspirants want to show off coattails. In Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, headed for an easy re-election, is trying to use his coattails to carry in three or four Democratic House challengers.

Likewise, Georgia Sen. Jon Osoff, headed for a decisive re-election, is trying to help former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms who’s in a much tougher gubernatorial race. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, whose term expires next year, is trying to help a former aide, Zach Dembo, win a House seat in a heavily Republican district.

Illinois’ billionaire Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker already has given about $40 million to help Democrats in the midterms.

True, the polls in a number of the more competitive races are close. It may be a huge infusion of Republican and Musk money in the closing days that may make the difference in a few.

Still, start with a base of the Democrats picking up 22 House seats and five Senate seats, if you’re betting the over-under, take the over.


POSTSCRIPT: This is my last column for about a month, on a medical leave, will be back.

​ KANGAROO KEVIN: White House economist Kevin Hassett is leading a three person Trump-appointed committee to decide whether Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook should be fired.
This is a sham, a Kangaroo court, with three Trump loyalists conducting a closed door review to affirm Trump’s demand that Cook be fired. His motive: she hasn’t supported his demand that interest rates be cut. Earlier the Supreme Court ruled the President can’t fire someone from this independent board without establishing cause
This star chamber panel is investigating a charge by Trump hatchet man Bill Pulte that Cook made a misrepresentation on a mortgage years ago. Reporting by reputable news organization indicate even that specious case is erroneous.
She has a first class lawyer in Abbe Lowell who I suspect won’t let her go along with a stacked hearing and a pre-determined verdict. This is more like the infamous Moscow show trials. Can you imagine this committee concluding Trump is wrong ?
It’s another saga in the decline of Hassett, a once respected economist. He was John McCain’s top economic adviser, and consulted with earlier Republican presidents and presidential candidates. I hired him at Bloomberg to write a column and television commentary.
But like so many others he sold his soul to please Trump.
The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh should speak out. If Trump/Hassett get away with this travesty, the independence of the Federal Reserve is over.

KAITLIN was missed. Kaitlin Collins the CNN Super star, is a tough questioner who doesn’t let politicians get away with lying or ducking her inquiries She was away one evening this week when New York Republican Mike Lawler, in a tough reelection, was on “The Source” and was asked about affordability especially soaring gas prices during the Trump Presidency.
The usually reliable Trump lawmaker blamed the high gas prices on New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s energy policies. Does Lawler believe if one of his Westchester County constituents went to Connecticut or New Jersey they excitedly could fill up on $3.03 a gallon gas prices like when Biden was President ?
That would have been a problem for Lawler as he also basically blamed affordability on Biden who left office 21 months ago. The question he should have been asked: As Republicans for almost two years have controlled everything in the federal government -- the Executive, both houses of Congress and a friendly Supreme Court -- do they bear responsibility ?
When politicians misrepresent, evade or lie it’s the role of journalists to hold them accountable, even interrupting to cut off filibustering.

MLB OWNERS TAKE A HIT. As a baseball fan I had to throw this in.
A World Series between the Milwaukee Brewers vs. either Clevland or Tampa Bay will be exciting, a couple well assembled teams with exciting new stars like Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio.
But that’s not the view of MLB. It likely will draw smaller television and streaming audiences than a series with a New York or Los Angeles team.
More importantly, it undercuts MLB’s proposal for a salary cap, like other professional sports leagues. The central contention is that’s necessary for competition, impossible, they argue, with a handful of big market, huge spending franchises. But Cleveland and Tampa Bay have among the lowest payrolls in baseball. The Brewers, just swept the Los Angles Dodgers whose payroll is three times larger. This will make the players union even more steadfast in opposition to any payroll caps even if it means a shutdown.
I usually side with the players in these disputes. But one attractive feature of the MLB proposal is a minimum payroll requirement which would require most teams to increase their numbers. This would really hit my hometown team, the Washington Nationals, who though their owners are among the half dozen wealthiest, have one of the lowest payrolls.

2026 MVP: Sticking with sports jargon the leading candidate for the political MVP --most valuable player to the unwashed -- is Georgia Sen. Jon Osoff. He has turned what was expected to be a close contest into a blowout. No one has made the case better against Trump, effectively tying corruption to affordability.
If James Talarico becomes the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas in 38 years he’s a contender. There are so many good House challengers it would be hard to chose.

This has been a dismal session for the House of Representatives but these next 75 days will be the final ones for one of the most significant members ever to serve in the chamber.

Nancy D’Alesandro Pelosi is retiring after 39 years, two decades as leader of the Democrats, eight as Speaker of the House. I used to cover Congress -- reporting on another great Speaker Tip O’Neill -- became a House-o-phile, read about its history and was tutored by an inside scholar, the late Congressman Richard Bolling.

Of the more than 11,000 Americans to serve in the House since 1789, she is one of the half dozen most important, one of the greatest of all times. The super six include James Madison, Henry Clay, Thomas Brackett Reed, Joe Cannon, Sam Rayburn and Pelosi.

The first woman speaker was a force, a case study in leadership and the exercise of power. The Affordable Care Act health care bill, often called Obamacare could be Pelosicare. Without her skillful tenacity it never would have become law.

She shepherded through the sweeping Biden agenda in his Administration’s first two years with almost no Republican support. Biden didn’t have anywhere near the clout over members in contrast to the total control Trump has had over congressional Republicans. The heavy lifting was up to the Speaker.

She was as proficient on defense, especially during the final two years of the first Trump presidency. She consistently stood up to him, batted down his bullying and was usually victorious. The image remembered was her tearing up his speech after the 2020 State of the Union. Overlooked is that this was after Trump refused to shake hands with her.

Pelosi is smart and charming. What made her great were other qualities: toughness and instincts. A few left wing Democrats arrived in the House in 2019 intent to take on the Speaker. She marginalized them.

Powerful men, as Trump should have learned, take her on at their own peril. At an Aspen Ideas conference last month she tore into Ken Griffin, the Hedge Fund billionaire and huge Republican donor, for the massive debt, especially a tax cut favoring the wealthy, that Trump has run up. As usual she had all the facts and figures.

Republicans paint her as an ideological left winger, the infamous San Francisco liberal. She actually is a results centered, progressive pragmatist. At the start of her leadership rise a quarter century ago, her campaign manager was Pennsylvania Rep. John Murtha, a working class moderate/conservative Democrat.

Her instincts are unsurpassed. She knew her caucus, what would fly and what wouldn’t. She was a vote counter extraordinaire.

Also, she’s a prolific fundraiser with a personal touch. One wealthy donor told me she never asked without inquiring about his family, what his children were up to.

The daughter and sister of Baltimore mayors, she is a consummate politician versed in the politics of congressional districts. She asked me last month about a couple House challengers I was covering; she knew more about the contests than I did.

A ferocious Democrat, she was respected by prominent rivals. She and George W. Bush developed a good relationship post his presidency. Former House GOP Speaker Paul Ryan cited her “historic” Speakership. At a ceremony former GOP Speaker John Boehner not only emotionally praised her but said how much his daughters admired her.

She had little use for another Republican Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, whose word was unreliable, a political sin in Pelosi’s book. I’m pretty sure she considers Mike Johnson a lightweight.

The California Democrat has been a player in presidential politics too. In 2008 she moved the needle for Barack Obama in the primary. In 2024 she was a prime mover in getting President Biden to bow out.

My only tinge of regret is that she and Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, once rivals and then allies in the House leadership, are about the same age. Hoyer, who also is retiring, would have been a different but a good Speaker.

Expect to see her campaign in the final weeks to help close colleagues like California Rep. Doris Matsui.

One of her parting gifts was to bow out when at the peak of her game, though at 86 she is as sharp as ever.

The likely next Speaker, Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, will benefit from four years first as minority leader as Pelosi did. Succeeding a legend is never easy. I suspect he’s ready.

As for Nancy Pelosi, we’ll never see her like again.

James and Al call out Elon’s election spending and MAGA misinformation, rip apart the last 2 years of Republican governance, and the races to focus on at the state level, before welcoming Brennan Center for Justice President Michael Waldman. They discuss election integrity, the challenges of certifying an election, the need to prepare legally for expected post-election challenges, and driving turnout to ensure a legitimate election outcome. They also emphasize the need for ordinary citizens to stay vigilant and the critical opportunity we have to take back our democracy.

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Michael Waldman: Twitter | Brennan Center For Justice | Author

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​

There were fears early this year that a top economic official, pandering to Donald Trump, might harm the economy.

Those fears have materialized. Except it’s not the Trump-appointed new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, who shows signs of maintaining the Fed’s historic independence that Trump hates.

It’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who has debased his credentials by turning into a political hitman. He bends over backwards to please Trump on matters ranging from economics to ethics to politics.

This has sacrificed some of the Treasury’s critical credibility.

It’s a posture that would be antithetical to modern Treasury Secretaries like Republicans Jim Baker (served under President Reagan) and Henry Paulson (George W. Bush) and Democrats Bob Rubin (Bill Clinton) and Tim Geithner (Barack Obama).

Appearing at the Republican’s midterm convention in Dallas last month was a shocker. He gave a heavily partisan, banal speech and took a cheap shot at former President Biden who he said “couldn’t stay awake.”

You’d have to go back more than a half century to John Connally to find a Treasury Secretary so openly partisan.

He’s thin-skinned, arrogant, likes to act like a tough guy. Last year he called Ukrainian President Zelensky a “special needs child,” and an obscenity even I won’t publish.

When Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden was questioning the Treasury Secretary about corruption, Bessent charged he was trying to cover up the one meeting the Senator’s son had about investments with sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein.

He has come close to fisticuffs with several adversaries.

His hot tempered diatribes have offended allies too. There has been a huge turnover at the top levels of Treasury as the Wall Street Journal reported last week: “Inside Bessent’s Treasury: Tension, Turnover and Unmet Economic Goals.”

Unlike his predecessors he has shown no hesitation in personally attacking the Federal Reserve, especially former chair Jay Powell, not just on interest rates. He charged it was improper for Powell to attend a Supreme Court argument over whether another Fed member constitutionally could be removed and that the former Chairman broke with precedent by staying on the board after his term as chairman expired.

Bessent was silent when Trump attended the Supreme Court argument over birthright citizenship. Two other Fed chairs, most notably Marriner Eccles, stayed on the board after their chairmanship.

He plays to Trump in going after the press. He rejected credentials for the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and the New York Times to cover the G-20 meeting this summer. He stiffed the usual Treasury press corps on a trip to Ukraine but included Jack Posobiec, an ultra right wing influencer who has been accused of consorting with white nationalists and anti-semites.

Bessent has mocked the Bloomberg financial terminal and called the Wall Street Journal’s respected chief economics reporter one of the “stenographers posing as journalists.”

The mere thought of declaring war on America’s two leading financial news organizations would have sent Jim Baker to the ICU.

Perhaps his trashy talk and actions wouldn’t matter if the record weren’t so bad. Almost all of the former Hedge Fund executive’s predictions on inflation, housing, gas prices, etc. have been off the mark.

One of his biggest initiatives, selling short term debt to reduce long term rates flopped. He made it worse at a speech when, using a casino term, he boasted, “I am the House,” dissent at your own risk.

Shortly afterwards a Fortune headline: “Bessent said ‘I am the House.’ The bond market disagreed.” His former financial firm partner, Stanley Druckenmiller, charged this had eroded the Treasury’s credibility. Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman described “the Beclowning of Scott Bessent.“

On August 21, the day after his attempt to bring down long term rates, the yield on the 30 year Treasuries was 5.25%; on Friday it closed at 5.6%.

He’s a Trump enabler. Elon Musk’s DOGE raiders sought access to the sensitive private Treasury files on Social Security payments and income tax rebates. They were turned down but this was overruled by the top.

This year an unprecedented deal was cut which gave Trump and his family immunity from IRS tax audits. Bessent, in charge of the IRS, has refused to discuss this as a federal judge is still looking at this shady deal.

The Secretary’s defenders say he has privately prevented bad or worse actions: getting Trump to tamp down his tariffs and persuading him not to fire Jay Powell. They say both Wall Street and foreign finance leaders would much prefer dealing with Bessent than Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick or White House aide Peter Navarro.

True, but that’s a bit like being the brightest bear in the zoo.

James and Al celebrate the election polls giving Dems a strong advantage going into the midterms, the effect of immigration policies on the country, and the motivations of MAGA while Trump is floundering. Then, they welcome journalist and author of “How Russia Won”, David Corn, to discuss the salience of Russia as a threat to democracy around the globe, how they interfere in our politics, Trump’s relationship with Putin, and what we must do in order to protect our system of government.

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David Corn: Twitter | Mother Jones | Website | Our Land Newsletter | Author

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The reality is the left, mainly socialists, won a handful of primaries in overwhelmingly Democratic districts. With the possible exception of a couple contests in Michigan, they don’t win in the competitive venues that shape American politics.

By contrast, there are very impressive mainstream House challengers -- call most of them Barack Obama or Nancy Pelosi Democrats -- running in Republican held districts. On our podcast, “Politics War Room,” James Carville and I have interviewed nineteen of these candidates who will determine the size of the Democratic House next year and the shape of the Democratic party.

Not a radical or socialist among them, they include prominent Navy veterans, a rear Admiral, one of the first women on a combat ship; a NASA chief of staff; several prosecutors; mayors of medium size cities like Scranton, PA; a Latin Grammy Awards winner; union leaders and several successful small entrepreneurs.

Most will win Nov. 3; here’s a look at a few:

MANNY RUTINEL

The 31 year old challenger is a two term state legislator, with a masters in economics from John Hopkins and a Yale law degree. The son of a single mother, raised on Medicaid and food stamps; as a kid, he had to sell blood to make ends meet.

He’s running in a Colorado district that goes from the Denver suburbs up to Greeley. Both Trump and the incumbent Republican, Gabe Evans, narrowly carried it last time.

A big issue is artificial intelligence and data centers; Rutinel favors a regulatory system with “strong guard rails,” more transparency and community involvement. He’s against both the Republicans’ hands-off approach and a total moratorium like Denver and others have embraced.

The charge that he’s a socialist is, as he says, absurd. (He probably would be the only member of the House with an advanced degree in economics and a law degree.)

Rutinel wants to restore Medicaid cuts and the Affordable Care Act tax subsidies and advocates for a public option in health care, not a mandatory government-run program. He adamantly opposes the Trump war in Iran and his “corrupt tariffs.”

CAIT CONLEY

Challenging a strong New York incumbent in her native Hudson Valley, she is seen as a potential political super star.

A West Point graduate, Conley served sixteen years in the Army, her six tours of duty included war zones like Afghanistan and Iraq. For most of that time she was a special operations commander.

On the campaign trail, she places blame for some of the burdensome cost of living on “corruption and greed” in Washington. She’s pro-Israel, anti-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and favors a two-state formulation for the Palestinians. The highly decorated combat veteran opposes the “reckless and haphazard” Iran war.

She considers Defense Secretary Hegseth a disaster who by “politicizing the American military,” firing our best generals, is “making America less safe.”

The incumbent Mike Lawler shrewdly paints himself as independent although, with rare exceptions,he’s a reliable Trump supporter; he even attended the Trump clown show convention in Dallas last month. He criticizes Conley as a carpetbagger “who just parachuted into the district.” She actually was off fighting in some of the most dangerous spots so Lawler and others could flourish in the Hudson Valley.

SARAH TRONE GARRIOTT

A state senator -- she was the Democratic whip -- Garriott is running in a district that stretches from Des Moines to small rural towns in southwestern Iowa. She’s a Lutheran minister who openly and proudly talks about her faith.

Republicans have attacked her as a faux pastor and left winger, which, based on her successful state senate runs, seems a losing argument. “My ministry and leadership in the community is my strength,” she answers.

She stresses “pragmatic” solutions to restore health care cuts, and help Iowa’s struggling farmers. Garriott opposes the Iran war which she charges has been “particularly devastating for agriculture.”

Her opponent, incumbent Republican Zach Nunn voted for the Iran War on multiple occasions until seven weeks before the midterms. Sudden Road to Damascus conversions shortly before an election usually don’t work.

JOANNA MENDOZA

Republicans painting Democrats as soft better stay away from Tucson, Arizona where the challenger was a Marine drill instructor. (She still does the cadence call perfectly.) Mendoza would be the first woman Marine ever elected to Congress.

In the campaign she has opposed the Iran war but her priority is the cost of living and health care. She ridicules the GOP’s “Big Billionaire Bill” and calls opponent, Juan Ciscomani “spineless” for never standing up to Trump.

With a district on the border, she favors tough restrictions, but is very critical of out of control ICE agents, personalizing her concern: “I’m a Brown woman who lives in a rural area, drives a truck and takes my daughter to school.”

Rather than the left, she’s courting the other party: “There are two types of Republicans in Arizona, MAGA and McCain Republicans.” She’s going after the latter.

SAM FORSTAG

If successful, he’ll probably be the first smoke jumper in the House of Representatives. After graduating from the University of Montana, where he was student body president, he spent eight years as a firefighter, the last four parachuting out of a plane from 3,000 feet to dig a ditch to suppress the spread of wildfires. Asked if that wasn’t dangerous, he says “not quite as dangerous as politics.”

He was also a union leader and got into this congressional race when Trump and Elon Musk slashed 360 jobs in one day from the firefighting service in his western Montana district: “About 85% were making $19.70 an hour or less.”

He is running in an open seat in a district Trump carried by eleven points. He wants to tackle the skyrocketing increases in energy, restore the DOGE cuts and the health care cuts from the Big Beautiful Bill, noting the rise in Montanans without health insurance and that a rural health clinic in Seeley Lake is about to close.

He has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez; Republicans charge he’s a radical socialist. But he also has been endorsed by the moderate Blue Dog Democrats and by former Montana Governor and Republican National Chair Marc Racicot, who praised him for having the “right priorities,” his values and character and “belief in the constitution.”

The smokejumper is summed up by former Montana Senator, Jon Tester: “He’s the real deal.”

James and Al lay out the growing challenges facing Republicans heading into the midterms, how history will view his reign, and how to hold MAGA to account. Then, they welcome journalist and author of “Profiles In Cowardice”, Jacob Weisberg, to discuss the Trump administration’s war on our institutions, the ethical dilemmas faced by law firms under presidential pressure, and the need for the media to hold politicians to account. They also sit with congressional candidate for SC-01, Nancy Lacore, to game out her race for the seat of former Rep. Nancy Mace, looking at the need to end forever wars, increasing affordability on everything from gas to healthcare, and driving turnout among Black and young voters.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to @politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

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Nancy Lacore: Twitter | Campaign Website | navy.mil | Facebook | Instagram

Jacob Weisberg: Twitter | Puskin | Author

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Democrats in the final five campaign weeks and when in the majority in the House next year should prioritize the right “I” word.

That is investigation, not impeachment.

The stunning corruption in this Administration, starting with the president and his family -- using the office for personal enrichment, taking pay to play to new levels and utilizing a Justice Department that serves as a partisan hatchet man for the president -- provides endless investigative and oversight opportunities. The test is to run serious, factual investigations, and avoid cheap headlines.

By contrast impeachment is a diversion that Republicans welcome so that they can charge that the Democrats are all about getting Trump.

Do I think Trump has committed impeachable offenses? How to count the ways?

But it won’t ultimately succeed and will involve an enormous expenditure of time, energy and attention.

Instead an emphasis on affordability -- health care, gas prices and grocery costs -- along with holding Trump world accountable should be the priorities.

House Democrats already are mapping plans for investigations next year. Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next Speaker, has enlisted Congressmen Jamie Raskin, top Democrat on the Judiciary panel and Robert Garcia, senior Democrat on the Oversight panel to spearhead a “structural approach” to investigations.

If Democrats win the Senate, Sheldon Whitehouse, as chair of the Judiciary committee, effectively will take the lead.

In the House there is talk of involving multiple subcommittees as well as committees. Inclusivity helps internally but serious investigations are difficult.

There are other investigative-savvy Democrats like Jared Huffman on the Natural Resources Committee, who has zeroed in on promising targets such as the Venezuelan oil scam and the garish Trump White House ballroom. Jim Himes is a heavyweight on the Intelligence Committee.

But a number of other Democrats would not be ready for prime time.

Too often the inexperienced focus on headlines and getting on cable news. That was the Republicans during the Benghazi hearings a decade ago and the case in these past two sessions, when chairmen Jim Jordan and James Comer ran comical hearings before the bipartisan push on the Epstein files.

There are obvious targets: the President’s crypto scam where he has made billions at the expense of others; Donald Trump, Jr.’s investment funds that get favorable treatment in government contracts; glaring intelligence failures.

Raskin has a report on presidential pardons -- an issue featured in an excellent CBS 60 minutes segment -- where those convicted or just indicted pay influencers, close to Trump world, to get them a pardon.

Pardons have been issued to some really onerous crooks like former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez convicted and sentenced to 45 years in prison for sending massive amounts of cocaine to the United States.

He was supported by Trump confidant Roger Stone and disgraced ex congressman Matt Gaetz. Both deny receiving any compensation as hard as that is to believe. It’s also hard to believe Trump didn’t somehow get a cut.

Hopefully Raskin, and Garcia, will investigate the entire Justice Department. Critics of the president have been criminally indicted based on politics with little evidence which is why most have been thrown out. And Trump friendly crooks are let loose on what’s been called a “clemency for cash racket.”

New York City mayor Eric Adams’ indictments for bribery and payouts from a foreign entity, was dismissed on the orders of the top Justice Department officials after a deal was cut to help Trump.

It was so sleazy that the conservative U.S. Attorney resigned in protest.

There was Gautam Adani, the Indian billionaire, indicted for bribery and deceiving investors; the charges were dropped after he met with Donald Trump, Jr. and pledged to make major investments in the U.S.

Many of these investigations will rely on outside sources or participants, as Trump will stonewall every step of the way. Most effective will be if lawmakers can tie corruption to affordability, how Trump and the insiders got rich at the expense of average folks.

With some of these investigations moving slowly and little prospect for big legislative achievements, with a Republican president, the clamor for impeachment will rise.

Already there are dozens of House and Senate Democrats who have raised the issue. Most senior Democrats, including Jeffries, discourage this. South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn cautions Democrats have to convince voters they’re working to make their lives more affordable: “Impeaching the president will not do that.”

That likely won’t resonate with the small group of radical socialists elected in deep blue urban areas in primaries this year. Philadelphia’s Chris Rabb’s website declares that defending democracy requires “Impeachment and Removal of President Trump.”

A middle ground measure some advocate is to impeach cabinet members, starting with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Again, there’s a good case but ultimate success is unlikely. Do they also then try to impeach Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick?

If impeachment convictions are off the table, there is a troubling question: with the Supreme Court’s 2024 decision giving Trump immunity from any official actions how will he be held accountable?

The best answer is not a futile impeachment but serious in-depth, conclusive investigations into what resembles a criminal syndicate. Then the judgment of history will be easy.

James and Al celebrate the excellent candidates running for office and their growing prospects in the midterms, shame Trump for his renewed war on the press and the 1st Amendment, and make the point that the administration is focusing on the trivial when the world is on fire. Then, they welcome union leader and smokejumper-turned-congressional candidate for MT-01, Sam Forstag, to discuss the war on rural hospitals, the dangerous influence of money in our politics, the death of accountability, and the need to focus on struggling Americans instead of endless wars.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

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With the Supreme Court slapping down Trump’s efforts to stymie mail voting and reports that he really doesn’t care about elections or is resigned to the outcome when he’s not on the ballot, there’s a little relief among voting rights advocates.

Get over it. The danger is greater than ever.​

Trump cares desperately about the November elections; look at his actions and threats. He engineered the unusual series of gerrymanders to give Republicans more House seats, tried to eliminate most mail voting, fabricated charges about illegal immigrants voting or foreigners trying to hurt him and even is opening up his campaign war chest.

It’s not that he cares about about any candidate other than himself. But the prospects of congressional investigations, with subpoena powers, of pervasive corruption in this administration and the Trump family is an inconvenience he urgently wants to avoid.

“He will use every trick in the book to try to continue to rig these elections,” Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, charged.

Think that’s partisan hyperbole? How about a top Republican urging voters to “cheat like hell like they do.” That was Donald J. Trump at the GOP’s Dallas convention this month.

Years ago a conservative pro-Trump journalist said he should be taken “seriously not literally.” We’ve learned they are almost indistinguishable.

“The greatest threat to the upcoming midterm elections is not the Democrats or the Chinese, noncitizens voting or electronic voting machines but the President of the United States and his servile Republican Congress,” wrote retired federal judge J. Michael Luttig, a prominent conservative.

There are multiple threats but in talking to knowledgeable sources, three stand out.

First the threat of sending federal agents, FBI or ICE agents, to polling locations with larger numbers of minority voters under the guise of voter fraud by “illegal immigrants.” Just consider - an undocumented worker, petrified of being apprehended, going to a public polling place or sending mail with a return address to a public place to take an illegal action?

But sending agents into the vicinity -- it’s against the law to send cops to polling places -- is to intimidate legal voters many of whom know about ICE agents assaulting and, in a few cases, murdering legal citizens under the pretense of rooting out illegals. FBI Director Kash Patel told a Senate hearing that he would not “shy away” from “protecting election integrity.” Homeland Security Secretary Mullin said he would only dispatch ICE agents to polling locations if “there is a threat” or to serve a warrant.

So in late October if the Don tells them there’s a threat down in the Rio Grande Valley, does anyone believe they’d respond, “Sorry sir we need more evidence?” They’ll put their jack boots on and charge.

The Democrats and voting rights advocates will go to court. In some venues like Texas they may struggle to get a court order, as the fear factor spreads.

Another huge threat is on election day or those leading up to it, to seize the voting machines and the ballots. That’s just Hollywood stuff, right?

Well the Cecil B. DeMille of election fraud -- Donald Trump -- told the New York Times earlier this year that he regretted “not ordering the National Guard to seize voting machines in 2020.” He wasn’t sure they were sufficiently up to the task. He has had time to try to solve that problem, even got in a practice run this year seizing the 2020 Atlanta ballots.

He would have the full support of his ever accommodating attorney general, Todd Blanche, as opponents rush to file court orders stopping this. What happens if they already have the possession of the ballots, the machines?

If the election gets through all of this there’s one final test: certifying the winners. Some red state officials may try to question the validity of victorious Democrats. In the House, the clerk, in what is intended to be a ministerial role, certifies the new members before the next Congress convenes.

But if the Democrats gain less than a dozen seats, the current Speaker Mike Johnson could replace the current clerk with a partisan lackey who would rule against those contested Democrats. That would be appealed to the courts, the Supreme Courts.

There’s cause and precedence for the Court stepping into this. Winning at least five votes would only be possible with the active support of Chief Justice Roberts.

The Trump led Republicans would try to drag this out warns Judge Luttig: “Judicial review of the House’s decision not to seat Democratic Representatives-elect in the 120th Congress would take weeks, if not months, during which time the United States would be in the throes of a paralyzing constitutional crisis.”

The best hope to avoid this calamity is for Democrats to enlist the best advocates and lead lawyers -- the post 2020 Biden team of former Solicitor Generals Seth Waxman, Walter Dellinger and Don Verrilli is the model.

Most of all make the November 3 vote too big to steal.

James and Al reflect on Trump’s erratic behavior amid his poorly executed midterm convention, how perception of him and MAGA is changing for the electorate, and the growing debate over AI. Then, they welcome congressional candidate from CO-08, Manny Rutinel, to discuss the importance of properly regulating AI companies and data centers, how to address the cost of living crisis, and how we can create a more equitable future. They are later joined by expert on our institutions and legal system, Ira Shapiro, to examine how Trump has disrupted the system, the scope of his corruption, and the challenge of restoring government integrity.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

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Manny Rutinel: Twitter | Campaign Website | Facebook | CO.gov

Ira Shapiro: Twitter | Website | Albright Stonebridge | Author

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There are few disquieting trends. The Connecticut Mirror and KFF Health did an exhaustive study of health care legal actions in that state. Most of these cases now are being brought by doctors or physician groups rather than hospitals, a reversal of only a few years earlier.

It’s true that of over 25,000 licensed physicians and dentists in the state only about 400 filed lawsuits over unpaid bills. The trend, however, is notable.

With investors, like private equity, buying up medical groups, it might get worse. A subsidiary of Team Health, a Tennessee physicians’ firm owned by Blackstone, brought some 4,800 lawsuits against medical patients in Shelby County, TN. After news organizations revealed this practice, the company said it was halting any suits.

To be sure, taking legal action against deadbeat patients with sizeable debts is understandable.

Too often these are relatively small bills and before suits or sending people to jail, a system for stretched out repayment or dropping it is the better option.

In the Connecticut reporting, Allie Cass-Wilson, a nurse with an OB-GYN bill from years before, was not allowed to propose a payment schedule. The medical practice then blackballed her from future care.

In Kansas, Joe Vasquez owed $4,561 for an emergency hysterectomy his wife had several years earlier. He missed a court date and Marshall’s attack dogs pounced.

Although he was on disability the cops, under the orders of the Marshall team, arrested the couple in front of their grandchildren; they spent two nights in jail before getting a loan to pay bail. Eventually he worked out a repayment schedule over eight years which should have been the first option.

Kellie Clutts, a nurse, had a $129 charge for a postpartum visit after her daughter’s birth nine months earlier. Recently divorced with little money she asked to make partial payments. The Marshall team rejected that and garnished her bank account.

It’s up to the voters of Kansas to decide whether Sen. Marshall deserves reelection. And his many patients can judge his medical competence.

But when a millionaire files over 700 legal actions, charging usurious interest and sends scores of patients to jail, most for relatively small debts, that’s a character test.

Roger Marshall flunks.

James and Al eviscerate Trump’s midterm convention, share encouraging news about Kansas, analyze the factors most salient to voters, and make some 2026 predictions. Then, they welcome congressional candidate Zach Dembo for KY-06 to discuss corruption, healthcare, and winning over rural voters. They address the need to meet constituents where they are, the potential to win over independents, how raising the Social Security tax cap is a winning way to tackle income inequality and keep our country solvent, and the importance of restoring Medicaid and ACA subsidies.

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Zach Dembo: Twitter | Campaign Website | Facebook | Instagram

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​

On October 27, a week before the U.S. elections, Israel will decide whether to replace or retain Prime Minister Benjamin Netanhayu.

Though the ultimate survivor, serving over 18 years as Prime Minister, the expectation is he’ll lose. Despite successful strikes against Iran, wiping out much of their leadership, he remains deeply unpopular in Israel, blamed for the disastrous October 2023 Hamas surprise terrorist attack and an unwillingness to accept any accountability.

With the country’s crazy-quilt political system -- there are dozens of parties and any that gets 3.25% of the vote gets a seat in the Knesset -- it’ll be weeks after the election before the governing coalition is formed.

A clear Netanhayu defeat would be welcome news politically for many Democrats who have been caught in the crosshairs between anti-Israel activists and strong Jewish supporters. They might hail the possibility of a new start in American-Israel relations.

Yet whatever the immediate euphoria, the tension will endure as then the prospect of a Palestinian two state solution seems as distant as ever.

American views about Israel are at the lowest point since Harry Truman first recognized the Jewish state in 1948. There have been other points of difference, like the 1956 Suez crisis when President Eisenhower backed down the Israelis, but they were more specific and shorter.

Today Israel and its leader are no longer supported by most Americans. For the first time polls show the Palestinian cause is more popular.

To be sure, some of this is the always present anti-semitism. That is the case with some of the radical left wing politicians who have scored a handful of victories this year. Some of their supporters, influencers, are virulently anti-semitic.

The most visible candidate is Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive and a Muslim. Unlike some of the radicals he is working to mend relations with the state’s Jewish voters. Jews and Muslims both represent less than 2% of the electorate but matter in a close contest; the 2024 Michigan Senate race was decided by less than 20,000 votes.

Antisemitism may be more prevalent among Republicans though it receives less attention. There are antisemites in the second ranks of the Trump Administration; some young Republican confabs are full of anti-Israel rantings, and the third place finisher in the Florida gubernatorial primary last month was a white nationalist antisemite.

The schism is actually aggravated by the prime Israeli lobby in America. The American-Israel Political Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is seen these days primarily as a Netanhayu cheerleader.

The dramatic decline in public support has deeper causes; the Israeli Prime Minister and his government are at the top of the list. One survey even showed New York’s anti-Israel mayor, Zohran Mamdani, more popular among Jewish voters than Netanyahu.

More than a few Republicans, almost all privately, blame Netanhayu for conning Trump into the disastrous Iran War. Even Trump may not be all that displeased if the prime minister is a gone,

The majority of Democrats intensely dislike the Israeli Prime Minister, citing his brutality, 73,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, and arrogance, the foreign leader addressed Congress to oppose President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran.

Thus, replacing him is a necessary condition for a reset of American attitudes toward Israel. But it won’t be sufficient.

A new government headed by the current front runner, Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, could undo some of the ill will generated by Netanyahu.

It could crack down on the settlers who daily terrorize Palestinians on the West Bank. The current national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, is a settler himself and supports these criminal acts. The New York Times reported that a number of former Israeli Generals and intelligence officials accuse the settlers of engaging in ethnic cleansing that ultimately poses a grave threat to the Jewish state.

That and a more measured policy on Gaza would help with U.S. relations.

Conversely, if Netanhayu pulls an upset days before the American elections, relations could get even worse. It also might crystallize the political tensions for a few candidates like El-Sayed.

After both these elections major changes may be in the offing. Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, both longtime supporters of Israel, will need to have -- pardon the mixed religious metaphor -- a come to Jesus confrontation with AIPAC. This once powerful lobbying group has alienated many Democrats, diminishing its influence.

More substantively there will be a serious reconsideration of the almost $4 billion in annual military aid the U.S. gives to a prosperous Israel.

Ultimately, until the Palestinian state question is settled the tensions with America as well as the Europeans will persist. Eisenkot opposes any Palestinian state.

Harry Truman’s decision to recognize Israel was over the strong objections of his top advisers, most prominently Gen. George C. Marshall, the Secretary of State, who warned it would unsettle the Middle East and lead to crises and confrontations.

Marshall was right. But so was Truman, who saw it as a moral imperative. For almost 80 years America and the Jewish state have been close allies.

Without changes in both countries that may not endure.

James and Al compare Trump’s favorability to Congress, the value of youth in politics, the politicization of the military under MAGA, the explosion of corruption, and how democrats can win in the midterms. Then, they welcome congressional candidate for FL-07, Bale Dalton, to speak on corruption, affordability, and tariffs with a focus on the value of a military background and a dedication to public service in the current environment. Finally, they are joined by Fairfax County Supervisor Jimmy Bierman to explore the politics and impact of data centers on voters and the public.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

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Bale Dalton: Twitter | Campaign Website

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Disney and ABC may be learning the perils of feeding a crocodile. Winston Churchill warned those that feed the crocodile will eventually be eaten by him.

In the month before Trump took office last year, ABC, owned by Disney, paid off Trump $16 million over a baseless suit he had filed against the broadcaster. This was a business calculation, selling out journalistic principles, to curry favor with the new Administration.

Now the Federal Communications Chairman Brendan Carr, a Trump loyalist, is threatening, in an unprecedented move, to strip ABC of its eight owned lucrative stations charging they’re too anti-Trump. In response, ABC is suing the FCC to head off this intimidation; underscoring the seriousness, one of the lawyers the company enlisted is Paul Clement, the most prominent conservative Supreme Court litigator.

You can’t buy off crocodiles or bullies, ABC, and this belated resistance won’t restore the reputational damage suffered.

The worst of the bully-capitulators may be the nine big law firms who surrendered to Trump’s objections to some of the lawyers they employed and clients they represented. There were no suggestions of impropriety. Trump just wanted revenge against adversaries.

The firms -- Paul Weiss; A&O Shearman; Cadwalader Wickersham & Taft; Kirkland & Ellis;, Latham and Watkins; Skadden Arps; Milbank; Willkie Farr & Gallagher and Simpson Thacher & Bartlett.--committed up to $1 billion to Trump causes to avoid any actions against them, which some claimed might endanger their survival.

More likely it was wealthy partners who didn’t want to see their compensation drop from $7 million to say $5 million or as President Obama said some “might not be able to finish that kitchen rehabilitation at their Hampton house.”

The contrast is with four Washington firms that stood up to Trump: WilmerHale, Susman Godfrey, Jenner & Block and Perkins Coie. They won decisively in court. Trump says he’s still appealing, that’s for show. These firms beat the bully and in contrast to those others, Judge Beryl Howell declared, will be ‘models” for standing up for constitutional rights when history is written.

There is a semi-similar story with higher education. Under the guise of stamping out antisemitism and ending diversity programs the Administration is slashing funding and setting new regulations if the institutions don’t accede. Some like Columbia surrendered.

Others like Brown, the University of Pennsylvania and the University of California at Berkeley partially gave in. Harvard and UCLA are among the few who stood firm and while they still will lose federal funds they are winning in court.

The duplicity of most of these actions was underscored by a former Justice Department official turned whistle blower, Haley Van Erem, She said she and colleagues were given politically-driven orders from above. The antisemitism charge, she said, was just a pretext for a “predetermined outcome driven by an approach to enforcement rather than a fact-based investigative process.”

Shamefully, few law firms or Universities came to the defense of their wrongly accused colleagues.

With a Democratic Congress and/or Administration, much of this will come out. It will be like the aftermath of the McCarthy witch-hunt era; some grandchildren will be proud, others won’t.

In the media there are a few profiles in courage. The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times refused to be bullied, stood up to outrageous Trump charges and are winning. in the courts.

So is legendary pollster Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. Trump sued them for a Selzer poll that showed him losing Iowa which he won comfortably. Reputable polls typically state the result is within the margin of error 95% of the time. All pollsters have a few lemons. Very few, if any, can match Selzer’s sterling record or reputation.

This is a disgraceful case. It’s still in state court though Selzer will prevail. The judge said that Trump’s charge could have a “chilling effect” on free speech.

On the other side, CBS’ reputation was stained when it settled a Trump defamation suit over the way it edited a 60 Minutes interview with Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

It was an absurd charge -- broadcast and print interviews often are edited, it’s a subjective process; good or bad this certainly wasn’t legally actionable. But CBS-Paramount were seeking the new Administration’s approval for a merger so they sacrificed journalistic principles for financial gain.

So did ABC when the President sued over anchor George Stephanopoulos saying that Trump had raped E. Jean Carroll. Trump was found by a jury not guilty of rape but was convicted of sexual assault. However the judge, Lewis Kaplan, explained that was due to New York state’s “narrow definition” of rape and that Trump raped her “as many people commonly understand the word.”

Stephanopoulos was careless but Trump had no chance of winning a defamation suit. ABC figured they could buy peace. With the FCC’s latest action maybe they learned a bully, like a crocodile, always comes back for more.

“Defending the First Amendment is not fighting for a free press. It’s fighting for a free nation,” declares Michael Gartner, former President of NBC News , and former editor of the Des Moines Register and Ames Tribune. “These guys should have learned that in junior high. But better late than never.”

James and Al warn of Trump’s enduring strength with the base after the win of Lindsey Graham’s sister in South Carolina, while emphasizing the overall decline in support for MAGA. Then, they welcome Stanford Law Professor Pam Karlan to discuss SCOTUS and its recent rulings, explain the shadow docket, and the defense of our democracy coming from lower-level judges and our Constitution. Then, they are joined by congressional candidate for VA-02 and Navy veteran Elaine Luria to review Trump’s disastrous effect on our military readiness and the need to focus 2026 midterm campaigns on affordability, healthcare, and bringing the war in Iran to a close.

Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to@politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from!

More from James and Al

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Professor Pam Karlan: Stanford Law | DOJ.gov | Supreme Court Litigation Clinic

Elaine Luria: Website | congress.gov | navy.mil

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